U.S. economy safe?.

<P> Historically, the U.S. economic situation is now described as unprecedented. .Were in the crowd was apocalyptic, and yet not find much evidence of the problem. .</ P> <P> Indeed, the United States last December's retail sales fell 0.4% in the fourth quarter real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 1.5% annual rate. .Over the past 6 months manufacturing output actually been flat, new orders for durable goods fell to an annual rate of increase of 0.8%, the unemployment rate rose to 5%. .Although these data indeed frustrating, but it does not mean that Armageddon has arrived. .</ P> <P>: http://finance. And in my opinion, the recent weak U.S. economic data, but is a strong performance after a "correction." .You know, the third-quarter annualized real GDP growth rate of 4.9%, while November retail sales rose 1.1%. .Decline in retail sales in a single month is not unusual things. .Over the past 5 years, the monthly retail sales data appeared at least 3 times a year of negative growth. .These data can be said that the decline in the normal fluctuations of economic data, its causes, including volatile oil prices, seasonally adjusted, or the weather and so on. .To overreact to this is wrong. .</ P> <P> a year ago, most economic data looked much worse than today. .Industrial output in February 2007 at 6 months fell by 1.1% in November 2006 at 6 months, new orders for durable goods fell an annual rate of increase of 3.9%. .The first quarter of last year, the actual increase was only 0.6% of GDP, while retail sales in January and will have two fall in April. .But the economy was still time to pick up in the years, from April to September, annualized real GDP growth rate up to 4.4%. .</ P> <P> take into account the housing market is so depressed, industrial production and the recent softening in durable goods orders is understandable. .GDP in the U.S. housing market is only a small proportion (4.5%), and this market has declined so severely, if by doing it let the possibility of a U.S. recession really minimal. .In contrast, the proportion of the economy in the United States exports to reach 12% to 13.6% in the rate of growth. .Growth in exports offset the housing market downturn is a result of the loss. .</ P> <P> As of November 2007 in the year, the U.S. personal income grew 6.1%. .In the occasion of the credit crisis intensified in the October and November, small business income has accelerated growth. .In fact, as of September 2007 in the year, excluding tax, rent, mortgage, car rental fees and loans, credit cards, overdraft facilities and property tax revenue growth after a 3.9% higher than inflation. .Issuance of commercial paper is being picked up, mortgage loan application is true. .</ P> <P> Although there are some with the financial and housing industry reports of listed companies unrelated to performance decline, but the market reaction to such individual phenomena of intense surprise. .Such as Intel (Intel Corp.) Reported disappointing results, fueling fears the technology sector. .But the facts behind the matter is, has published results of the 24 S & P 500 index constituent stocks of technology in the performance of 20 better than Wall Street expectations. .</ P> <P> based on recent monetary and tax policies created the economic models show that real GDP growth in 2008, the United States between 3% to 3.5%, while the possibility of a recession is 10%. .In the United States Federal Reserve Board (Fed) lowered interest rates and the stimulus package introduced by the Government before this forecast may be able to valid. .However, after the Fed cut interest rates 175 basis points, the U.S. economy rebounded strongly in late 2008 has increased the likelihood. .The biggest threat facing the economy is still inflation, not recession. .</ P> <P> But many people do believe that the recession has already occurred, reason is the functioning of credit markets have failed. .According to this pessimistic tone, lead to the loss of subprime crisis is only the tip of the iceberg. .Economic slowdown, coupled with weak financial markets, will reach trillions of dollars in the size of the derivatives market off a "perfect storm." .These people are worried about is all the associated risk of default on internal, swaps and excessive credit and countless other problems, this building will result in the U.S. financial system fragile house of cards completely collapsed. .If not so serious, they are also worried the credit crunch at least appears, leading to serious economic downturn..