United States cold affects China's four industry

United States Department of Commerce before the second half of the United States GDP annual growth rate projections from last quarter's 5.6% to 2.9%. Because of the real estate market and the weakness in consumer spending, the United States economy seems to have begun "sneeze", the Economist, China shipping, low-end electronic manufacturing, furniture, textile industry, such as four industry will be affected by a possible "cold".

HSBC yesterday a report on the said market should beware of United States economic recession risks. HSBC on United States GDP growth expected in 2007 only 1.9%, while the Fed could cut interest rates at the end of next year to 4%.

Deutsche Bank greater China Chief Economist majun yesterday told reporters that the United States economy sneezes, China's low-end electronic manufacturing, shipping, furniture, textile industry such as four industries will be affected by negative impacts, but he also pointed out that China's food and beverage, retail, Internet, telecommunications, electricity, insurance and banking and other six industry, "and the United States economic cycles are not relevant or is contrary to the trend and therefore will not be affected by the slowdown in the United States. ”

Ma Jun said, according to the historical quarter of data analysis, the United States GDP growth and the growth of China exports reached 0.8. United States-GDP growth declined 1% each, China's export growth will slow down 6.5 percentage points. While the United States economic slowdown to the recent low point, bring China's export growth rate dropped to 15%.

He predicted that "in the export growth rate dropped to 15% in the quarter, and GDP growth is expected to China will therefore be higher than second quarter low 1.2 percentage points. ”

Ma Jun further noted, shipping, integrated circuits, electronic components and semiconductors, furniture industry in domestic economic cycle and the United States is highly positive cycle. In addition, the textile industry is also experiencing with United States periodic, correlation is a little weak. On industry export dependence on basic also confirmed this conclusion: in 2005 China's electronics industry exports up to 64% of GDP, the furniture industry is 40%, 28% of textile industry.