Inducements floating exchange rate of RMB exchange U.S. Treasury Department granted the privileges.

<P>: Http://finance. Hearing, can not directly affect the RMB exchange rate, but the United States and China can easily become bargaining chips </ P> <P> British media reported on May 31, the U.S. Congress planned for 6 .month a bill authorizing the U.S. Treasury Department in exchange rate fundamental "imbalance", the foreign exchange market intervention. .</ P> <P> analysts said that in the second round of China-US Strategic Economic Dialogue, China and the RMB exchange rate issue is not on the U.S. side, which prompted the U.S. Congress reached a consensus on the bill. .</ P> <P> However, the free convertibility of the RMB has not been achieved, even if the bill passed by Congress authorized the U.S. Treasury intervene in the foreign exchange market, also can not directly affect the RMB's exchange rate. .But this can easily become a bargaining chip U.S. and China. .</ P> <P> induce a floating exchange rate of RMB </ P> <P> "U.S. Congress, the bill gives the Treasury the right to intervene in the foreign exchange market, from institutional to ensure that the huge deficit the United States Treasury .circumstances, can still bear the cost of intervention, the joint intervention in currency markets and China, to ensure that the RMB exchange rate will not fluctuate too much, beyond the scope of the real economy can bear. "Sun Lijian professor of finance at Fudan University yesterday to accept the" First Financial Daily "Phone .Analysis of interview said. .</ P> <P> Sun Lijian said that this fact is to give U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson on the RMB exchange rate policy more bargaining chip: if the RMB floating exchange rate system, the United States together with China is willing to intervene in the foreign exchange market, reducing .damage to the small exchange rate fluctuations. .</ P> <P> floating exchange rate system for the country, the U.S. dollar is the world currency, if you want them to intervene in their exchange rate, only with the help of the U.S. intervention in order to achieve maximum effect. .</ P> <P> Japanese lesson </ P> <P> national currencies pegged to the dollar, the dollar pegged to gold after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1973, has become a common intervention in the 80s last century, a popular means. .In 1973, the Japanese yen to a floating exchange rate system, the United States and the Group of Seven (G7) on the joint intervention in the foreign exchange market exchange rate policy in Japan has played a major role in the smooth transition. .</ P> <P> seventies and eighties of last century, G7 to discuss a major theme is the national currency valuation is reasonable. .The situation in the 1997 Asian financial crisis has changed. .U.S. national interests that the different G7 countries to jointly intervene in more and more difficult to reach a consensus, intervention ineffective. .Therefore, in the United States since greatly reduced the number of joint intervention. .</ P> <P> while Japan is still dependent on the export-oriented economy, the exchange rate of its domestic economy is critical, so have to continue the independent foreign exchange market intervention. .But not with the United States, such unilateral intervention is poor, and the cost is very high. .By 2005, Japan reached a consensus on basic academics: intervention in the foreign exchange market losses, all indicators show that intervention ineffective. .Therefore, since the Bank of Japan significantly reduced the foreign exchange market intervention. .</ P> <P> not believe that joint intervention </ P> <P> Sun Lijian analysis, if the RMB exchange rate floating system and the implementation of joint intervention, China will face the following risks: </ P> <P> in the bilateral intervention can .No effective control of the RMB exchange rate? .Now the euro challenge the dollar is the status of world currency, while the EU has become China's largest trading partner. .</ P> <P> the interests of the United States can always be consistent? .If their interests diverge, the United States give up the intervention, then China's unilateral intervention in the foreign exchange market is difficult to be effective, this is the Japanese experience has demonstrated. .</ P> <P> fully floating exchange rate, the exchange rate to be more difficult to predict, it will disrupt China's business decision, difficult to control the exchange rate risk. .</ P> <P> floating RMB exchange rate will also test China's central bank. .Currently, China relies on regulations to control the exchange rate risk, once the system release, the central bank can only operate through the international foreign exchange market to manage the exchange rate, which is the management level of the central bank becomes a tremendous challenge. .</ P> <P> "currency intervention has not succeeded in the case," Sun Lijian said, "does not change as long as the export-oriented economic structure, change the risk of large exchange rate system." </ P> <P> It is reported that the U.S. Congress .House and Senate bills are striving to be the absolute majority of support to prevent the overthrow of President George W. Bush to veto this bill. .</ P>.