Harry · S · dent believes that the prosperity of the United States now is to establish a network of information technology in the foam and the last time the "baby boom" on the basis of vulnerable
United States well-known economist Harry dent · S · through its newest book "the next big bubble", published in their contribution to the United States economy's latest predictions, one of the most amazing is that he predicted United States economy will be in 2009, the inevitable entry into recession.
Dent that led to the United States the reason for this decline, not that external factors, because the prosperity of the United States now is to establish a network of information technology in the foam and the last time the "baby boom" on the basis of the vulnerable, the recession will be inevitable. He asserted: the United States population structure will in 2009 after entering the senile and cyclical fluctuations also will spur the economy fell into a slump, this situation will be continued until 2023.
This however is the forth prosperity
In the past two hundred years, there are two trends than the climate to human and economic development of greater, one of a growing population and ageing trend, another is the trend of technical progress. While the Tridente predicted economic recession, it is like predicting the weather trend that some basic data and regularity of development factors.
Dent said, because many extreme factors such as demographics, globalization and economic progress, now this prosperity is a forth prosperity. The first bubble appears in 1985 to 1987, but was not the technology bubble. Most recently, it is more a bubble appears in 1995 to 1999, mainly concentrated in the Internet and technology industry stocks. Now, the last bubble will appear in the 2005-2009 or early 2010, and the foam will be accelerated development. It may become the 200 years since the greatest bull market and technology bubble, the United States almost powerless.
Consumption peak is about the past
And the reason why the current round of economic prosperity would come to an end the cycle, Dent that decision factor is the population of the United States the cyclical downturn. According to the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics of the Ministry of labour to consumption data, the consumer's life mainly occurs at the peak of the 46-year-old-50 years old. Then, in the rest of life, consumption will decline. In other words, each generation can be very accurate manufacturing of prosperity and decline in the economic cycle, they will probably occur every 40 years.
While in the United States, most recently the "baby boom" of the peak year was in 1961, this generation is in the 37-year-old entered the high-spending years, 47-year-old peaked, but in the years after that, the sharp decline in consumer spending power, which led to a recession. This time around from 2009 or 2010, will continue until 2022, or 2023. He warned that "this may be history's largest depression, at least the 1930s great depression after a maximum of a depression. ”
The stock market last feast
According to the forecast of Tridente, United States is now at a time, just this time great prosperity in the middle position, the remaining 4 years, the United States will also continue to prosper and Acceleration, one of the prominent flag is, United States of stock market will then enter the greatest bull market.
In the next big bubble of Tridente analysis: "now, we have a · with Warren Buffett and most expert very different projections, this situation is similar as in the late 1980s. In the 10 years before the end of the period, we can see the Dow Jones index impulse 35000 point to 40000, NASDAQ reached around and 13000 may impact 20000 points. "Thus, for the majority of investment in United States market, from 2005 to 2009 annual meeting is the last of his life, investment opportunities, in the past few years will have the possibility of return is the number of times before you return.
He said, "we all fundamental research and research cycle shows that investors may 2002 to the end of 2009 or early 2010, see the history of the highest average annual compound rate of return, represents the entire market, the Dow Jones index and the standard & poor's 500 index, or some of the most dynamic sectors (such as technology, biotechnology, financial services, health care and in addition to the Asian outside Japan), so that the latter rate may be higher. ”
The climax is the technological revolution to the
The climax of the technological revolution will also be the end of 2008 and 2009, reaching a peak, then some of the most significant new technical consumer goods market penetration will reach 90%. Many of the emerging industry of dominant firms will then have the highest status. Therefore, investment, business, career opportunities will be the largest in the remaining time of arrival.
He suggested that "from 2005 to 2009, this time, not only is the most significant in the life of an investment opportunity for relocating your business career and career best time, you will decide how to live, and where to live, not only at the upcoming great prosperity and recession for immediately. ”
Dent on the United States economic predictions:
2005-2009 or early 2010 will be 200 years since the greatest bull market and technology bubble
United States economy in 2009 or 2010 entering recession, continued until 2022, or 2023, this may be history's largest depression
In the remaining 4 years, the United States will also continue to prosper, Sinopec is expected to impact 40000 points
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