United States Treasury Department 17, international capital flows (TIC) showed that as at the end of China's total holdings of 9 7989 billion United States national debt, and the month of August, 18 billion, compared to the holdings of the United States national debt is still the largest foreign holder.
The report also shows that the United States Government bonds of the second and third largest foreign holder of Japan and the United Kingdom in September are larger holdings, 203 billion respectively in the holdings and the holdings of 224 billion, respectively 7515 billion and 2493 billion.
It should be noted that the report displays the month to buy United States long-term Treasury bonds of foreign capital inflow of 557 million, of which private investors net purchase 448 billion in official agencies of purchases to 109 billion. At the same time, the United States residents buy foreign long-term bonds for $ 15 billion.
However, currently used to measure the strength of the dollar index has dropped to $ 15 months of low point.
[Topic] United States national debt, China dilemma
China Holdings increases gradually decrease
Judging from the current situation, China's holdings of us bonds gradually decrease the margin is. 7 months, China's holdings of 241 billion, but only 9 month China holdings of 18 billion, and total amount held us debt in 8000 billion following control.
Nearly half of the year, China has been in the United States bonds held by the fluctuations of the State. Always after the stock holdings. United States Department of Treasury, March, may, July, China's holdings of United States bonds respectively 237 million, $ 380 billion, 241, April, June, August, China, United States national debt reduction, reducing the amount of 44 billion respectively, 251 million and billion.
In addition, increased holdings United States national debt in September and not only in China, the second largest u.s. debt holder countries Japan in holdings of 203 million, and the gap between China to 474 million. The "BRIC" in addition to the holdings of 26 million in India, Brazil and Russia are holdings of United States national debt, the amount of $ 76 billion and 2 billion.
Throw out long debt duanzhai
States in the United States national debt holder structure on recent performance as "long-throw duanzhai acquisition debt". Data display, revised, September foreign holders net reduction in short-term bonds billion, and net holding long-term bonds 557 million. Increase of long-term bonds, 448 million for the acquisition of foreign private investors, and foreign official institutions, holdings of long-term bonds only $ 109 billion.
Analysts noted that the United States implementing quantitative easing monetary policy, short-term bonds profitability continued to go down, already approaching to 0, so the revenue standpoint, buying duanzhai value. In comparison, buying long debt seems to be even more profitable, because the current data shows that the United States economy entered into the modest recovery period, long debt security.
Financial crisis, the Fed continuous lowering interest rates, last December, the Fed funds interest rate drops to 0 ~ 0.25% minimum level of history, and remains to this day. 4 November, the Federal Reserve officially announced the continued maintenance of the federal funds rate at 0 ~ 0.25% unchanged, and the body size of debt purchased from 1750 to 2000 billion US $.
However, the United States overall economic situation of the "complex and not sue" still makes us dollar position to support the dollar hedge transactions initiated associated risks are starting of concern. Including the United States national debt, dollar-denominated assets or will face shrinking.
China International Finance co., Ltd. in one report noted that consumer confidence fell unexpectedly, the deficit this year, the unemployment rate is still high face rising pressure, trade deficit expanded again, indicating that the United States economic situation in the short term would be difficult to sustain a strong dollar policy. While the current US dollar rates at historically low levels, the US dollar hedge transactions such one-way speculation mode essentially there is a large open when asset prices and exchange rate adjustments, but of intense main risks in emerging markets.
Portion of the withdrawal of United States bonds
It is important to note that 9-month Caribbean banking centers continue to reduce debts 82 billion United States, August is significantly reducing total 132 billion, from this year's Max value $ 2136 dropped to 1717.
The region includes the Cayman Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, Panama, etc, but this area is the main global capital accumulation.
As one of the five major creditors before the United States for oil-exporting countries, from June to continuous reduction of the debt situation of the United States, September the total holdings of 38 billion us $ to 1853.
"In the current depreciation of the dollar, the speculative nature of the funds would be an alternative source of information. At present, the appreciation of the Renminbi pressure increases, the speed of China's economic recovery and the extent of global it leader, is likely to become the pursuit of such funds. "WebLogic Chief macroeconomic analyst panxiangdong on media.
No comments:
Post a Comment