U.S. dollar crisis, economic recession approaching.

<P> Accelerated decline in the U.S. </ P> <P> series of recent data showed the U.S. economy will accelerate in the recession, and the possible outbreak of a crisis. .</ P> <P> First, the U.S. Government has just announced the second quarter GDP growth of only 2.5%, compared to 5.6% in the first quarter fell by more than half. .</ P> <P> Second, the U.S. housing market recession began to accelerate, which is reflected in three aspects: First, a sharp slowdown in residential investment, residential investment in the first quarter fell 0.3% in the second quarter plummeted by 6.3%; .Second, the sharp decline in new home sales, July fell by 18%, has dropped to December 1991 record low since, while the amount of unsold homes rose by 40% year on year, has reached historic highs; third entry in July .After the volume of mortgage applications fell for three consecutive weeks, in July fell by 1.2% in the month, 80% of U.S. residents to buy a house with this loan. .</ P> <P> third in the U.S. economic slowdown, while inflation is accelerating. .The second quarter, personal consumption price index was 4.1%, while in the first quarter was 2.0%. .Economic growth slowed and prices rising, the United States has shown a "stagflation" of the pattern. .</ P> <P> lead to slowing U.S. economy, the basic reason is that U.S. interest rates increase. .From June 28, 2004 to June 29 this year, the entire two years, the U.S. base interest rate from 1% to the current 5.25%. .Interest rates on the U.S. economy had a full tightening effect, especially heavy blow to the U.S. real estate market. .Since the "9.11", the U.S. economy highly dependent on the housing boom in U.S. real estate bubble in the past 5 years in the context of substantial flooding, property values have become U.S. residents of the "ATM." .According to a report by Lehman Brothers, the real estate value-added generated by the consumer, about the current U.S. consumption of 1 / 3. .However, rising interest rates, the Fed under the influence of long-term U.S. mortgage rates are also rising, and began the second half of last year to accelerate the trend has now risen to 6.8% increase over last year has been about 3 percentage points, and .U.S. residents finally began to affect the real estate needs. .</ P> <P> according to the U.S. Department of Commerce data, U.S. consumer price index for the second quarter is 4%, but personal income growth rate of only 2.8%, that is, inflation rates, income growth in the United States actually has a negative .slow income growth and consumption remains strong, so that the savings rate of U.S. residents continue to fall in July this year, the U.S. household savings rate has fallen to -1.5%, and has a 15 consecutive months of negative savings rate, so if there is no U.S. .real estate boom, there is no U.S. demand growth and economic growth, once the end of the U.S. real estate boom, it will inevitably cause a serious recession the U.S. economy. .Since the second half of the U.S. housing market began to decline trend U.S. economic growth so far has been the direct cause of slowing down. .</ P> <P> the United States must make the difficult choice </ P> <P> being the case, why should the U.S. government continue to hike it? .This and the U.S. economy is related to the structural contradictions. .The concentrated expression of the structural contradictions in the U.S. huge trade deficit widening, the future make up a huge trade deficit widening, the United States continue to rely on the input of international capital from overseas, and international capital is willing to come to America because, mainly to .for U.S. dollar assets can generate high returns, which requires strength of the dollar, U.S. dollar assets would not be someone else willing to pay to buy. .That compelled the Fed must continue to raise interest rates, the dollar interest rates higher than other major international currencies to the level of interest rates. .</ P> <P> However, the euro began last December to raise interest rates four times to the present have been carried out, the euro rate has risen to 3%. .Japan announced the end of March this year, the "ultra-loose" monetary policy has been to 7 at the end of the liquidity of the currency from March 30 to 35 trillion yen crunch to 9 trillion yen, and in July was the first time .interest rates, sterling has also carried out on August 3 last year, the first rate hike since, so the dollar began to emerge from this year other than the bottom of all major international currency interest rate uplift trend. .</ P> <P> the biggest problem currently facing the United States is to maintain the U.S. dollar, in order to absorb international capital inflows to balance the huge trade deficit, if other major international currencies in the interest rates are rising and U.S. dollar interest rates have continued to increase, .Otherwise, the inflow of international capital will lose its power. .But the interest rate is a "double-edged sword," to attract international capital flows in the generated results, it is also against the domestic stock market and real estate market, in which "a positive and negative" effect in front, the U.S. must be tough .option is to give up interest rates and insurance is not the collapse of the domestic capital market, or in order to maintain the euro, the yen and other major international currencies spreads, pierce the domestic capital market bubble to take the risk of continued rate hikes. .</ P> <P> from the current state of the U.S. economy to see, should be brought about by international capital flows at greater risk of stagnation, because the prospect of the event, not only to make up a huge trade deficit is not the source, it will immediately affect .running the U.S. economy, the dollar would immediately collapse. .However, if the U.S. interest rate rises to 5.5%, the U.S. real estate market will most likely "avalanche" of prospects, and promote a serious crisis in the U.S. economy, the dollar eventually to collapse, so when the U.S. interest rate rises to 5.5% after .six months of the future should be the most critical period of the U.S. economy. .</ P> <P> China should focus on two issues </ P> <P> if the outbreak of the severe economic recession and the U.S. dollar crisis will certainly have an important impact on Chinese economy, China must take precautions. .For China, we should mainly focus on two issues: </ P> <P> First, the United States to save dollars, in addition to economic instruments, as well as military means, the situation in the Gulf is likely to cause turbulence in international oil prices skyrocketing. .As China's current oil dependency rate has been as high as 45%, of which imports from the Gulf region and accounts for about half, if not enough oil reserves, including national reserves and commercial reserves, the continuity of China's economic growth would be greatly undermined. .</ P> <P> Second, the United States is China's largest trade surplus source, in the first half, China's trade surplus of 61.4 billion U.S. dollars, while China's trade surplus to 624 million, or U.S. trade surplus in China .more than all the trade surplus. .Another round of investment cycle has become a huge supply capacity, domestic production has been brewing problem of excess, surplus in the first half last year, the proportion of GDP, 4% in the first half of this year has risen to 5.4%, showing that China's economy .more dependent on external demand growth, if the U.S. economy into a severe recession and demand due shrunk dramatically, China's economic growth depends on the U.S. market would be seriously affected, for such a prospect is estimated to be sufficient and necessary preparations, especially for open .domestic demand and the implementation of various policies, must be accelerated. .</ P> <P> dollar crisis occurred is not adversely affected, due to stay in the U.S. capital market is very large-scale international capital, dollar crisis in the event of such international capital needs to find new outlets, so to attract foreign investment to China .is a new opportunity. .</ P>.