The United States economic recession and prospect guessing

<P> 1, Introduction </ P> <P> 2000 in the second half, the U.S. economy since the end of March 1991 for 10 years since the period of rapid growth, entered a slow growth period. .Economic growth in 2001 declined quarter by quarter, the sudden "9.11" is a serious blow to consumer and investor confidence and accelerate the rate of decline of the U.S. economy. .Third quarter of 2001, the U.S. economy is in a negative growth of 1.3%. .To save the U.S. government adopted a series of economic policy measures, including: emergency funding 40 billion U.S. dollars for counter-terrorism and economic reconstruction plan, and to aviation, insurance provide 150 billion dollars in aid; four to reduce the federal funds rate; proposed .100 billion U.S. dollars in economic stimulus plan and other programs to save the U.S. economy. .After many interventions to reproduce the dawn of the U.S. economy: GDP last quarter of 2001 stabilized slight, the economic growth rate reached 1.4%, the economic indicators seem to show that the U.S. economy is bottoming out signs. .However, if the U.S. economy does recover, how much strength of the recovery is still controversial. .This causes a U.S. recession this paper analyzes the impact of various factors to run the U.S. economy, and the development trend of the U.S. economy to make guesses. .</ P> <P> 2, the main reason the U.S. economic recession </ P> <P> Overall, U.S. economic growth in this economic recession is the result of cyclical adjustment, the U.S. economy after 10 years of rapid growth .carried out a structural repair. .Out of recession since 1991, the U.S. economy began rapid expansion and continued for 10 years. .However, the economic cycle, the internal laws of the objective requirements of the U.S. economy must be adjusted appropriately, so high-tech industries in the industrial restructuring of the U.S. economy into a cyclical when it appears the very necessity. .</ P> <P> 2.1 "new economy" will not eliminate cyclical fluctuations, but also needs its own structural adjustment </ P> <P> "new economy" despite high growth, low inflation, orientation and speed of globalization .the development of other new features, but because of its traditional economic and born out of long-term coexistence with the traditional economy, so in this development process, the traditional law of economic cycles will continue to play a role. .Meanwhile, information technology and network development, and the overall economy, linked more closely to economic adjustment from one department to another department of the conduction velocity to speed up, leading to changes in speed and overall economic growth than in the past more sensitive to economic changes .. ."New economy" on the amplification of fluctuations in the economy is the U.S. economy into recession, one of the main. .</ P> <P> investment boom as the spread of information industry, the United States in the late 90's the international capital markets absorb a large number of foreign investment, resulting in massive inflation in the U.S. stock market. .In the United States in 1999 foreign direct investment and portfolio investment of 607 billion U.S. dollars in 2000 to 782.4 billion U.S. dollars. .Because of information asymmetry, resulting in scrambling of the group effect of the excessive expansion of investment demand, there has been a lot of duplication. .Once the economic volatility caused by excess supply technology investments immediately apparent, the direct consequence of a large number of Internet companies closed down. .Mergers and corporate investigations, according to U.S. networks, to the end of 2000, a network of about 210 listed companies to stop business listed Internet companies account for about 60% of the total. .</ P> <P> 2.2 on the U.S. economic slowdown, rising oil prices played a role in fueling the </ P> <P> now the proportion of U.S. oil imports up to 54%, international oil prices per barrel from the end of 1998 increased by less than $ 10 .$ 14.9 per barrel, which makes the operating costs of the enterprises and consumers in the energy expenditure increased significantly, seriously inhibit economic growth. .According to the American Manufacturers Association estimates that between 1999 -2000 oil prices in the U.S. economy lost more than 1150 billion dollars, equivalent to the U.S. GDP, one percentage point rise in oil prices on the U.S. recession had a negative impact. .</ P> <P> 2.3 stock market bubble burst, the wealth effect into a negative effect, so that over-consumption suddenly dropped to the bottom </ P> <P> Revenue Service, according to U.S. estimates, the 1995 -1999 period the U.S. stock market is in bull market ., the actual annual growth rate of capital gains to 34%, for the residents increased by 1.7 trillion revenue. .Stock market wealth effect stimulated unprecedented spending to drive economic growth per year of about 1 percentage point. .However, after 1999, the stock market crash of the financial assets has shrunk dramatically, which moved toward the negative wealth effect. .Meanwhile, the impact of the economic downturn, a large number of companies have laid off or reduced staff salaries, consumer income levels were significantly decreased. .</ P> <P> excessive consumption a few years ago in 1992, the U.S. savings rate dropped to 8.9% -1% in 2000, this is the first time since 1933, a negative savings rate. .From 1995 to 1999, consumer loans increased by 34% to 6.2 trillion U.S. dollars. .Now, in order to repay debts incurred excessive consumption, many consumers are starting to reduce consumption to increase savings, so consumption of cooling caused by the U.S. economic downturn. .</ P> <P> 2.4, there are three U.S. economy does not solve the problem </ P> <P> huge foreign trade deficit, the dollar value and the personal savings rate is negative growth in the current troubled U.S. economy, the three main issues. .U.S. economic growth mainly depends on domestic demand, in general, a huge foreign trade deficit is not the negative impact on the economy. .But when the sharp drop in domestic demand, economic downturn, the huge deficit will accelerate the economic decline. .Strong U.S. dollar will affect exports, to further expand the trade deficit; personal savings will result in negative growth in the money market decline, the stock market in the capital markets fell extraordinary, the money market should have no role to play, to a certain extent influence the economy. .</ P> <P> 2.5 "9.11 Incident" exacerbated the extent of U.S. economic recession, the U.S. economy and the potential impact of direct </ P> <P> "9.11" incident, the U.S. economic slowdown is limited to information .industry and related industries, a large proportion of total U.S. GDP and the aviation industry and other tertiary industry is still struggling to support. .Subjected to "9.11" is precisely the hardest hit areas of strength the U.S. economy, such as aviation, insurance, finance, tourism and commerce. .In addition, "9.11", compared with natural disasters, its people are more far-reaching psychological impact, the American public on the economic and political sense of security has been seriously weakened. .</ P> <P> 3, affect the U.S. economy is running at this stage of the factors </ P> <P> 3.1 the positive impact of U.S. economic performance factors </ P> <P> 3.1.1 businesses and consumers .confidence has been restored </ P> <P> 2001 fourth quarter, interest-free loans by auto sales and the impact of changes in consumer expectations, consumer durable goods grew by 38.4%, an increase over the third quarter increased 36.5 percent .become the main driving force of private consumption growth. .According to data released by the U.S. Conference Board showed U.S. consumer confidence is currently higher than "9.11" incident has been restored, the United States in January 2002 the consumer confidence index rose to 97.3, compared with December last year, an increase of 2.7 percentage points. .At the same time, TheConferenceBoard the latest survey also showed that business confidence also appears business jumped, the company's executive director of industry and general confidence in the economy increased significantly than before, have on the company's future development prospects. .</ P> <P> 3.1.2 Equipment and software investment fell narrow, business inventory reduction is nearing completion </ P> <P> 2001 years, sharply reduced the information industry, the annual investment in equipment and software fell 4.4% .annual rate, the quarter decreased by 4.1%, 15.4%, 8.8% and 5.2%. .Decline quarter by quarter from the second quarter decreased, suggesting that the U.S. information industry continue to adjust the space is shrinking. .Meanwhile, as companies accelerate digestion inventory, so inventory levels continue to decrease. .According to the U.S. Commerce Department data released this year, U.S. business inventories in February than in January fell 0.1%, has declined for 13 consecutive months. .U.S. companies and the current inventory and sales of non-agricultural sector has been reduced to the ratio of the level of fourth quarter of 1997. .Over the past two years production has significantly raised to digest the bubble, PC inventory days has been reduced to 5-year low, some products even have to increase inventory levels to meet market demand. .</ P> <P> 3.1.3 out of the continuing decline of the manufacturing sector has the potential </ P> <P> 2002 年 1 月 U.S. Institute of Supply Management's economic statistics show that the United States in December 2001, "Purchasing Managers Index ."In November, based on the further growth of up to 48.2, and since then continued to rise, to February 2002 the index reached 54.7, from the first time since July 2000 50. published by the U.S. Institute of Supply Management" Buy Manager .Index "is a measure of growth in U.S. manufacturing is the core of the data, if the index below 50, which indicates that manufacturing is in recession. .In addition, in February 2002 the United States has an urgent production index increased to 61.2, especially the computer industry and the semiconductor industry's industrial production value in 2001 for 10 month and in August began to rise, the upward trend continues today. .According to U.S. official data, in March 2002 of 0.7% industrial growth in the U.S. for May 2000 the largest increase since these data further confirmed that the U.S. manufacturing sector has gradually begun to recover. .</ P> <P> 3.1.4 import decline reduced demand for the international market is conducive to recovery </ P> <P> United States imports about 20% of total world imports, decline in U.S. imports will lead to weak demand in the international market, .affect other countries, economic development, thereby reducing the demand for U.S. products and services, causing U.S. exports decline. .The fourth quarter of 2001, significantly reduced U.S. imports began to decline, coupled with reversed early weakness in domestic demand rose, and expand the international market demand and increase U.S. exports, prompting the U.S. economy accelerated. .</ P> <P> 3.1.5 faster growth in personal disposable income, consumption, increasing the potential </ P> <P> by tax cuts, interest rate cuts and increased government transfer payments and other factors, the United States in 2001 personally .disposable income grew by 3.6%, 0.1% increase over 2000. .The increase in income increased the purchasing power of consumers, and consumer demand is expected to continue to rise. .</ P> <P> 3.2 to run the U.S. economy adversely affect the factor analysis </ P> <P> 3.2.1 U.S. companies are not synchronized with the macroeconomic performance </ P> <P> the fourth quarter of 2001, the United States .pre-tax profits of non-financial companies continued to decline, with manufacturing, transport and services the sharpest decline in profits. .Third quarter of 2001, profit before tax of non-financial companies fell by 57.7 billion U.S. dollars, has not only stabilized the fourth quarter, but the rate of decline accelerated, reaching 61.2 billion U.S. dollars. .Consider the role of government tax and other factors, the third-quarter after-tax corporate profits fell 34.7 billion, while fourth-quarter decline in profit after tax amount of the company 540 million U.S. dollars. .If the profits of U.S. companies without truly stabilized in the short term turned up, then no real business investment to restore, is bound to affect aggregate demand growth. .</ P> <P> 3.2.2 U.S. employment situation has not improved significantly </ P> <P> the U.S. Labor Department released employment data shows that in March 2002 the U.S. unemployment rate also rose slightly over the previous two months .from February's 5.5% rise to 5.7%, and 5.8% after the recession of the highest unemployment rate is almost the same. .The unemployment rate rise that the U.S. economy there is imbalance in the recovery process. .</ P> <P> 3.2.3 continued U.S. investment in fixed assets dropped significantly </ P> <P> in the second quarter of 2000, fixed asset investment growth rate of 19.5%, after which the speed of investment in fixed assets .by quarter will decline. .In fact, in the fourth quarter of 2001, when the demand for resumption of growth in personal consumption, while investment in fixed assets decline has reached the maximum value since 2000. .From the third quarter of 2000 to the fourth quarter of 2001 the growth rate of fixed asset investment are: -2.8%, -2.3%, -12.3%, -12.1%, -10.5% and -23.5%. .Among them, the fourth quarter of 2001, non-residential fixed investment fell by 3.8%, non-residential construction investment fell by 33.6%. .</ P> <P> 3.2.4 U.S. financial system has exposed a series of questions </ P> <P> years, U.S. companies and accounting firms conspired to create a lot to do on the inflated profits. For example: in stock .options in lieu of wages, labor cost is zero, the profit will naturally be greatly increased. .Many large companies motivated by profit, in violation of basic business ethics and a large false accounting. .Enron recent events may be just a bad operation of the U.S. financial system, the tip of the iceberg. .In the future, investors will look at the eyes of earnings reports has become particularly critical and careful, once the recurrence of similar financial scandals Enron, then the attack on the U.S. economy would be very heavy. .</ P> <P> 4, on the U.S. economy, the long-term speculation </ P> <P> the future direction of the U.S. economy after a short adjustment is unlikely to return to normal growth. .Although the United States CEO who believes that "the worst economy is over," but recent financial report shows improvement in profitability was mainly due to significant cost reduction last year due to an increase in demand factors are not obvious. .Medium to long term, a country's economic growth is the country's labor productivity and the growth rate of labor supply and decisions. .According to the British financial Road, from the third quarter of 1990 and first quarter of 2001, U.S. labor productivity growth rate of 2.4%. .U.S. official statistics show that U.S. productivity growth rate between 2% -2.5%. .1996 U.S. economic sector and labor for U.S. labor productivity growth rate of supply of the actual situation that the U.S. potential GDP growth of 2.5% in recent years, due to the existence of the bubble economy adjusted to 3%. .So, I guess the short term even if the U.S. economy rebound, economic growth is only likely to remain around 3%, optimistic estimates will not exceed 3.5%. .Unless there are new technological breakthroughs to achieve higher productivity growth rate, otherwise the U.S. economy will not return to the late 90's high-speed growth. .</ P> <P> However, the U.S. economy will not repeat Japan's slowing economy after the bubble burst for 10 years in the past. .Because the U.S. stock market bubble and the economic situation and the early 90s compared to the Japanese economy, despite some similarities, but the overall situation is significantly better than the status of the Japanese economy. .In addition, the Federal Reserve and U.S. leaders have more experience, tools and more room for maneuver to adjust the economic growth to slow down and after a period of recession as soon as possible after the resumption of growth. .</ P>.