The trouble the U.S. economy has only just begun?.

<P> The most painful moment of the financial system may have in the past, the U.S. economy's troubles may be just beginning. .</ P> <P> "(http://finance.) Since early March has been a recovery in financial markets have stock market prices, and reliable than U.S. Treasury bonds, corporate bonds and high-risk mortgage-backed bond yields fell .. .May 2 in a government report claimed that the U.S. unemployment rate declined in April, is optimistic about the economy were given a boost. .But history has shown, it is too early to rejoice. .In a crisis, before the market hit bottom than the economic situation is very common. .This is because the market is forward looking, while economic weakness is the imbalance led to the crisis by way of correction. .</ P> <P> Harvard University economist Kenneth Rogoff said: "The financial crisis that the economy is usually bigger problems exist. The financial crisis will aggravate the recession, but the cause is rarely trigger a recession." Luo .Gulfton recently Carmen Reinhart University of Maryland co-wrote a book since the financial crisis since the 14th century history. .</ P> <P> the impact of the crisis on the economy depends largely on consumption, investment and asset prices deviate from economic fundamentals such as basic determinants of their level. .The stock market crash of 1987 and 1998 Long Term Capital Management hedge fund nearly collapsed a threat to the fundamental financial systems. .But this imbalance is largely limited to the back of the financial markets themselves: in 1987 in terms of the stock is overvalued relative to earnings, while in 1998 over the hedge fund borrowing. .Therefore, when the Federal Reserve (Fed) relief measures to alleviate the threat to the financial system, the economic impact will be limited. .</ P> <P> but not the same as the current crisis. .Over the past few years, U.S. home prices and housing construction have been rising beyond the rent, income and demographic can afford. .Trillions of dollars into family housing loan collateral. .This situation made savings, consumption expansion, stimulated the rapid increase in loans, while relaxing on families, businesses and speculators lending standards. .</ P> <P> when house prices stop rising, the highest risk mortgages began to default, triggering the crisis. .But even now, housing prices are still higher than most people think that sustainable levels, almost no increase in household savings. .Even if the Fed at the March rescue of Bear Stearns in mid-action, as some people really think that now is the culmination of the crisis, but with consumers based on wealth, access to credit decrease in the corresponding adjustment, economic .or contraction may occur. .</ P> <P> Korea, the United States can take as a reference. .December 24, 1997, won a record low against the dollar, less than half of the year earlier, South Korea's financial crisis, which reached its peak. .International Monetary Fund and the U.S. Treasury along with a helping hand, to persuade foreign banks to extend loans to Korea. .The next year, the won rose 63%. .But the economy into a severe recession. .In 13 months time, the unemployment rate rose from 3% to 7.9% jump. .In 1998, the economy shrank by 6% to 8% for the consistent growth in Korea, this is undoubtedly a heavy blow. .</ P> <P> the beginning, South Korea seems to be involved in the Asian financial crisis of innocent bystanders. .In fact, over the years are the industrial consortium supporting the economy's over-investment. .South Korea was responsible for important official response to the crisis, now adviser Goldman Sachs, said Kim Ki-hwan, the industrial consortium to a large number of preferential loans from the bank, so as to provide a wide range of capital investment funds. .And from overseas banks then credited to U.S. dollars. .</ P> <P>.