See from the long and short term interest rate risk of U.S. recession.

<P> Recently, on whether the U.S. economy recession, there is a clear difference between an economist's view. .One view was that the U.S. economy will slow but not a recession. .Nobel Laureate in Economics, University of Pennsylvania Professor Klein (Lawrence R. Klein) led the forecast team at 21 January 2008 forecast raised in the report released, the United States in Q4 2007 and 2008 .Q1 GDP growth rate of the chain are off 1.04%, significantly lower than the 2,3-quarter GDP growth, but not a recession. .Another view is that the U.S. economy will slide into recession. .In early December 2007, Professor of Economics at Harvard University, Chairman of the U.S. economy, former Chairman of President Reagan's Council of Economic Advisers Feldstein (Martin Feldstein) published an article that read: In 2008 the possibility of recession in U.S. economy .of up to 50%, if the U.S. economy really a recession, then this recession will extend longer than the last recession, fell even more sharply. .</ P> <P>: http://finance. To determine the economic direction of the reference there are many, this paper from the long and short term interest rate changes in this indicator to determine the trend of the U.S. economy. .</ P> <P> long and short term interest rate is an effective predictor </ P> <P> 1980 in the late, some economists noted that the United States since the 1950s, before the previous recession, long-term U.S. government bonds and short-term interest rates .Treasury interest rates are rapidly narrowing the gap between, and short-term interest rates higher than long-term interest rates, the so-called inversion. .Since then, the gap between long and short term interest rates by many economists as an important economic leading indicators. .According to the study of some economists, the interest rate gap between long and short term aspects of economic recession in the forecast, compared to other leading indicators of financial stability and better accuracy. .From the experience point of view, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rate and 3-month gap between the interest rate forecast is the best. .</ P> <P> from historical experience, in the U.S., the interest rate gap between long and short term debt is a good predictor of the economy. .In Germany, Japan and Canada and other countries, this indicator of economic recession forecasting record is not bad. .</ P> <P> from the situation in the United States since 1953, the United States and the March 10-year gap between yields on U.S. recession on the prediction has a good effect, apart from one exception, the long .there the United States interest rates lower than the 10-year Treasury bond yields in March of that long-term yields and short-term interest rates reversed the situation, the U.S. economy appeared recession. .Since 1953, the beginning of this century, the United States appeared in 6 cases inversion of short and long rates, respectively, in 1966 Q3, 1969 3-4 quarter Q3 1973 Q3 -1974 1979 Q1 .-1980 Q1, 1980 Q3 Q4 -1981, 3-4 quarter of 2000. .From September 1966 to January 1967, the U.S. long-term interest rates reversed, after that, although the United States in 1967 Q2 GDP qoq annualized rate of 0, but did not appear GDP negative growth, but industrial production during the quarter .a sustained decline. .The reason, one is short and long term interest rates during this period is relatively small degree of inversion, in addition to long-term interest rates in October 1966 Short-term interest rates 0.34 percentage points lower than, the other months are relatively small degree of inversion; the other hand, is continuing .shorter periods of time, in accordance with the quarterly average of view, only 3 quarter of 1966, the negative. .Thereafter; to the beginning of this century, there were 5 long-term interest rates reversed the situation, whenever there is a long and short term interest rates appear upside down, the U.S. economy in recession. .</ P> <P>.