Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Research highlights the high-level decision-making around the many problems China's economy.

<P> The impact of the international economic downturn, the original vibrant Chinese economy is facing unprecedented difficulties in recent days, Chinese leaders around the country to conduct research on the current economic situation, this is a very rare phenomenon in recent years, indicating China .Although the economy continued to show the development of the surface, but hidden behind a lot of problems and worries, so that policy-makers had four visits verified the situation. .CNA feature articles that, according to Chinese media revealed that members of the CPC Central Committee Political Bureau, including Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping and Vice Premier Wang Qishan has recently in Jiangsu, Shanghai, Shandong and Guangdong, inspection, .concerned about the level of covering current foreign trade, finance and many other aspects of the developments. .China's State Information Center, Zhu Baoliang, chief economist at the Economic Forecast Department believes that these measures show the CPC Central Committee leaders in Beijing on concern about the current economic situation, it also highlights some of the more economic operation is indeed facing a great risk. .Since the reform and opening up of China, rapid economic growth, especially in recent years, however, experience higher growth and lower inflation, the second half of last year, more and more obvious signs of economic overheating. .At the same time, as international crude oil and wheat, corn and other staple goods prices are soaring, triggering global inflation, coupled with the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, leading to the world financial crisis, all these are the impact of the economic development of countries .Even China can not remain indifferent. .Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute of World Economics and Politics in the latest Yu Yongding, an "International Economic Review" the author pointed out that China's current economy is facing three major challenges: inflation, worsening the slowdown in economic growth and asset bubbles .collapse. .Zhu Baoliang that China's current potential risks presented in three main aspects: One is the economic downturn, while rising prices, increasing pressure on living and the decline in corporate profits, but profits decline in the loss of enthusiasm for investment companies, and in time to control prices .Use some of the price control measures that may affect market supply; the other is the volatility of capital markets, such as real estate, the stock market decline, etc., so that hidden financial risks gradually exposed; the third is investment slowed down, so that some leading industry .increase the risk of overcapacity. .According to the National Bureau of Statistics show that China in recent years, the price was to go Jan, January to May of this year's consumer price index (CPI) rose as high as 8.1% average, far more than China's State Council set the target value of 4.8% .; just as Beijing's June 20 recent sharp increase in oil and electricity prices, the average increase of 20%, the general forecast, the second half of this year's inflation rate probably want a small easy. .In addition, the People's Bank of China released on June 25 "2008 survey on urban depositors in the second quarter" show, the residents still pessimistic about price expectations in the third quarter, 50.5% of respondents thought that the third quarter of the price "up", than the same period last year .increased 0.3 percentage points. .The above activities show China is facing increasing inflationary pressures. .Not only increase inflationary pressures, economic growth is also slowing down the presentation of a rare situation. ."China Securities News" quoted the State Council Development Research Center of Macroeconomic Research Department at the end of June Yu Bin, "China Business Strategy and Development Forum," the analysis said that the current rate of economic growth in China there is a substantial downside risk, we must pay close attention to macro-economic indicators .changes. .He believes that China's gross domestic product, GDP growth since 2003 has more than 10% for five consecutive years, running from the law of the economic cycle perspective, the current round of economic expansion in 2007 was the peak period, even if no other factors, economic growth in 2008 .speed will be lower than in 2007, and a number of factors, including the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, China's stock market and real estate market instability and so on the negative impact on economic growth this year. .In fact, from the Chinese Bureau of Statistics data published by the difficult macro economic growth in China has recently found a marked decline in the phenomenon of economic growth in the first quarter of this year over last year although the growth rate of 10.6%, but the growth rate down from last year .1.1 percentage points. .In addition, compiled from the Bureau of Statistics forecast the future direction of the economy's latest leading index of macroeconomic point of view, for several months has decreased slightly. .Furthermore, the main driving force of China's economic growth the amount of investment over the first 5 months of this year increased 25.6% over the same period last year, just from the numbers point of view, the increase over last year when only 0.3 percentage points down, but if taking into account the period 8 .% increase on the price of investment goods, the actual increase in investment showed significant decline. .On the other hand, this year's export performance has deteriorated, according to Chinese Customs statistics. .The first five months this year, exports increased 22.9% over last year, than last year, down 4.9 percentage points over the same period, the trade surplus is 8.6% higher than same period last year. .All these have shown that although the sustained development of China's economy, but clearly showed the strength of economic growth slowing trend. .Growth rate gradually slowed down China's economic development, highlighting the stock market's decline is outside and the real estate recession. .The Shanghai Composite Index since October 6124 between the point of falling back to early July peak near 2800, a drop of more than 50%; As real estate prices have shown this year's decline trend rate of decline has not only signs of increasing, and .falling house prices in the region is increasing. .For this reason, more and more people can not help but worry about whether there will be an asset bubble in China of the situation deepened the uncertainty of economic development. .In fact, China's stock market fell for some time, the decline is quite large, while real estate prices Zoudie not an overnight thing, people have mixed feelings on this, suffer a few, early to call on Beijing to "rescue" ., leaders in Beijing to explore the countryside at this time the people sufferings Although somewhat slow, but it was too late than too late, how to avoid the economic "hard landing" is probably the Zhongnanhai leadership priority. .</ P> <P> Related: stagflation worries hit macro-control, or fine-tuning </ P> <P> Chinese-style economic reforms, you understand you </ P> <P> analysis of economic trends in the People's Daily: China will not .as the sharp drop in 98 years </ P> <P> grim trade quietly relaxed fiscal policy </ P>.

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