Saturday, December 18, 2010
Mid-21st century will be no dominant world economy.
<P> The global economic community as early as long ago predicted the U.S. economy and the dollar's decline. .</ P> <P> after World War II, the U.S. economy of the world economy was almost instantaneous manner from 50% to 70%, the hegemony of the United States to be a truly national, and the dollar as the world's base currency. .However, this is only the war disasters have led to economic recession in Europe and cause temporary abnormal state. .1950 -1960 American leaders through economic recovery in Western Europe and Japan, economic growth, recognizing that the multipolarity of the world economy will develop. .</ P> <P> 1995 years later, neither side take on U.S. and European economic hegemony on the world economy also appears to polarization phenomena. .Including Japan, China and other regions, including Asia, the economies of scale has been close to the United States and Europe. .</ P> <P> gradual decline in the U.S. economy behind the rapid economic development, the real rise of China. .Loss of economic hegemony in the United States in the process of global economic dependence on China will be increasingly high. .</ P> <P> reason why the United States continued to revalue its currency because the domestic industry to compete with China is extremely uneven psychological owners. .Keep pace with the United States as China's largest export market in Europe, but also because of the textile issue with China's growing friction. .Europe and America, as trade friction between Japan and China is also a matter of time. .</ P> <P> each target country and the trade friction, could give China's export growth to a screeching halt, this situation has occurred more than one twice. .But the most important is that the Chinese economy is sputtering and balanced world economic growth will suffer. .</ P> <P> 21 mid-century, how will the distribution of the world economy? .Need to imagine the local industry the size of population groups. .</ P> <P> the mid-21st century, the United States the largest population of 4 million; in Europe, the European Union there are about 450 million people, about 1.5 million people in Russia, a total of 600 million people. .But that, in Eastern Europe, Central Europe and other regions joined the EU, the industrialization of the population has been completed; Chinese population, the United States and Europe and Japan to implement the same size of the economically active population of up to 400 million; Japan and South Korea has about 2 .billion people, this still is the world's population, the highest average level of education of the group is expected that this state will continue. .</ P> <P> industry in predicting the size of the population after the end, if the regional GDP by economic activity derived from the scale together with the industrialization of the proportion of population size, we can roughly calculate the mid-21st century regional economy .share of total state. .</ P> <P> Europe, including Russia, the United States, Japan, Korea and China, the proportion of the entire East Asian region's economy will be 6:4:6. .Circumstances, the United States and China's economy is almost the same, but lower than the EU. .Japan and South Korea's economic size is half that of China. .Russia to strengthen cooperation with the EU even if the successful economic development, its economic scale is not to the United States 40%. .</ P> <P> in the mid-21st century, no economy is not a hegemonic position, a multipolar world economy will completely. .The United States will continue to maintain economic power, but can not be called completely hegemonic country. .China's average standard of living due to population size is too large and far behind other regions. .</ P> <P> in any countries and regions do not have the hegemony, the full realization of multi-polar world economic situation, no matter which currency of the country can not also become the basis of currency or the world economy in the world economy through the CPC .international currency. .</ P> <P> Therefore, in the first half of this century earlier, a new member of a multipolar world economy may be to bring together, the creation of national, regional currencies common measure of value to make a new international monetary system .decision. .</ P>.
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