Increases in interest rates will affect the stock market adjustment or shock??

20 March, the National Statistics Bureau Chief Economist Yao Jingyuan in China Development Forum, from the whole national economy run and price trends, consumer price index (CPI) inflation control in 3% is a more difficult. But he also said that the effect of the macroeconomic adjustment, eventually able to complete and implement this specification. But just a week ago, 14 March, Zhou xiaochuan, Governor of the said that whether the interest rate depends on the estimated price trend in the future, the Central Bank concerned consumer price index (CPI), was also concerned about industrial factory price (PPI). Inflation expectations, interest rate expectations do not know whether they will like weekend raids in dust, to today's investors ' minds on a layer of color.

After last weekend after the Commission's risk warning, it is expected that the interest rate for market implications should not be very large, it is expected that the next connection in 4000 points of turbulence will increase the amplitude. After all, even to give the stock cooling, and management for the stock market's attitude should be the hope that it slowed the increase in speed, not want it to appear serious.

The stock market and long term trend weakening

In the interest rate cycle and long-term trends in the stock market. Through our 1991 to interest rates and stock market fluctuation in a statistical analysis of all samples, interest rates and stock indexes exist, such as weak reverse 1993-1995 rate hike cycle, stock market trend of long-period has declined significantly and, in 1996-1999 by interest rate cycle, stock market bull.

Interest rate increase and growth slowing down the performance of listed companies, the bi-directional push overheated, and the securities markets will have a sustained impact, medium-term trend will result in the stock market.

The interest rate on the market do not have direct effect, since the interest rate to the stock market funds face impact of transmission mechanism is too long. However, at present the market is in a particularly sensitive for the policy messages of the period, the interest rate that a message might be adjusted to market as one of the reasons for it.