Goldman Sachs: U.S. recession probability of 40% -45%.

<P>: Http://finance. News, 27, Goldman Sachs issued research reports that the probability of future U.S. economic downturn of 40% -45%, 3% base rate cut channel. .Goldman Sachs predicts that by end of next year the unemployment rate will reach 5.5%, 4.7% higher than the current 0.8 percent. .In addition, in the next 6-9 months, the Fed lowered the federal funds rate to 3% in the lowest compared with the previous estimate of 4% of a full percentage point lower. .Current federal funds rate at 4.5%. .</ P> <P> However, the same day, two branches in Chicago and Philadelphia Fed President has said that twice cut interest rates enough to cope with economic risks, continue to cut interest rates to resolve the current credit market problems are not the right way. .</ P> <P> Chicago Fed President Charles Evans branch of that day in the Futures Industry Association meeting in Chicago, said that although the overall economic slowdown, risks remain, but given the Fed has to take appropriate monetary policy, he believes the risk into .may not be realistic. .</ P> <P> the Fed will be December 11 meeting to decide whether to continue cutting interest rates. .</ P>.