Gelao issued statements of economic recession Jingshi

: Http://finance., u.s. economic growth prospects are better kept controversy

Future prospects for economic growth in the United States? now on this question has two distinct sound. A large number of economists in the latest survey shows that many economists favor this year and next year the prospects for economic growth in the United States, but Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan before but in a speech that the United States economy by the end of this year may be sliding into recession.

This item for economists in the latest survey was conducted by United States authority economic forecasting agencies — the national business economics (NABE). Of the United States 47 important economic forecasting agencies competent economists predict that in the next two years, the United States economic growth prospects remain favourable. They believed that the United States economy was able to maintain the growth of the road, it is expected that GDP growth this year, the United States economy will reach 2.8%, inflation risk is slightly higher than the risk of economic downturn.

American Business Economics Association, Karl · Donald Baum (Carl Tannenbaum) said: "when the temperature suddenly return to normal levels during the season, NABE is expected, as the last December as the United States economy powerful growth trend will not be many changes. ”

For the employment situation, NABE's view, this year's employment situation will remain stable. Report of the Organization pointed out that this year's unemployment rate is expected to reach 4.7%, slightly higher than the January 4.6 per cent, but this is not the same as the Fed's current forecast basic remains consistent.

At the same time, the United States economy's inflation risk is expected to be slightly to stabilize. Learn to predict, lower energy prices will bring the overall inflation rate fell to 2.0 percentage points below, if that is the case, it will be 5 years minimum standard rate of inflation. However, this year, the removal of the volatile food and energy prices of core inflation factors, is expected to be maintained at a higher 2.3 per cent level, moreover, expected this ratio may be maintained by 2008.

The survey also pointed out that this year's United States personal consumption expenditures expected to be from previous assessments of 2.8 per cent increase to 3.2 per cent. But profits will grow relatively moderate, and overall economic vitality.

With regard to the concern of the Fed's interest rate policy, American Business Economics Council indicated that it believed that the Fed will remain Federal benchmark interest rate at 5.25 per cent level. Despite the expected fed in 2007 interest rates remain unchanged, but surveyed economists or decision, the Fed will in 2008 will slightly lower interest rate levels, may be transferred to the 5% level. Mainstream economists have said they believe that the rise of inflation to United States macroeconomic risks, will be smaller than the risk associated with the growth slowdown is even more cause for concern.