Cleared from 6-1 downtown Inspiration: policy intervention is hard to change trends.

<P> October 16 of last year's peak of the line disk has 6124 points, A shares can be described as bustling cleared, people marvel at, but this experience is not entirely a bad thing. .After the curtain falls downtown, can still give investors a little lesson and inspiration. .</ P> <P align=center> valuation indicators of social status hard to Review </ P> <P> "China Securities News" analysis, the conversion process in the current round of CBBC, the valuation of the market indicators did not change the level of disk .vane, valuation system has become investors doubt the validity of the object. .</ P> <P> 2007 年 9 27, from the statistics of China Merchants Securities, the most recent year's net profit a rolling basis, the current all A shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen market, the static price-earnings ratio is 51.28 times the book value .6.92 times. .AH arithmetic average premium of 132.9%, the weighted average premium of 56.18%, reaching a peak. .However, the stock market is up a week later, on the touch 6124 points. .Growth in 2007, a startling performance of listed companies, up to 70% growth rate during the first half, the data to the market confidence that the growth of future performance expanding foam can be compacted, so the strategy report in 2008, many organizations .A shares give a better vision of the future. .</ P> <P> as of October 15, 2008 closing, according to Thomson Reuters data, the Shanghai Composite PE is only 13.62 times the static and dynamic PE is 11.93 times the book value is only 2.17 times, while the premium has dropped to AH .37%, the lowest even down to about 10%. .Today's valuation is historical comparison of both vertical and lateral and international comparison, are in a relatively reasonable level, but the meaning of the stock market has not stabilized, the valuation indicators of inspiration seems to have failed. .</ P> <P align=center> policy intervention is hard to change trends </ P> <P> 2007, the central bank to raise interest rates 5 times, 9 times to raise deposit reserve ratio, 1 raised the stamp duty, and did not change the market's upward .trend. ."5.30" is just up the path to broader market changes, and did not change the upward trend, after a month of adjustment, when the market eventually continue to "cow" down, the stock market rose pattern seems difficult to suppress due to policy change .. .Analysts believe that the tightening of monetary policy can not suppress the stock market may have two reasons. .First of all, when the economy was too hot, monetary policy alone can not cool; Second, higher interest rates make the investment environment in the real economy deteriorated, investors prefer funds are invested in the stock and property market, make short-term gains. .</ P> <P> 2008 year, the stock market's upward momentum is "refinancing" straw that breaks the stock market's bullish gone. .After stamp duty cut, "4.24" market did not continue long; "9.19" three substantive good together and, the market limit, but after the rally lasted only one week; the subsequent interest rate cut failed to .A shares some support, with the external stock market volatility, A shares and then break 2000 points. .</ P> <P> outside the stock market the same. .European and American markets to rescue the market rebound to the short-lived, with some real economy data released onto the market again fell purposes. .Analysts believe that the current policy of direct intervention in the market just for the change in the market down the path to the end of the market in need of financial support surface, but the current global economic downturn may be just beginning. .</ P> <P align=center> Change escape the external influences </ P> <P> along, A-share market is a relatively closed market, but the ups and downs has not escaped the impact of outside. .Last September, A shares have been rising out of a separate market; the first half of this year, has come a decline in the market independently, but as a whole, A shares of the stock market peak time and peak time difference from overseas is not .far. .The difference is, A shares fall faster early, but the global capital markets after the recent baptism, many emerging markets decline even more than the A shares. .Recently, the external market with the A shares is more closely linked, external stock market panic to some extent, resulted in suppression of A shares. .</ P> <P> analysts believe that, first of all, from the A shares of the structure, since 2006, many Hong Kong-listed China stocks gradually return, AH share price compared with each other to form a frame of reference, which makes .A share closer to the international market; Second, the economic fundamentals of the stock market point of view, in the context of economic globalization, domestic and international economic related degree is ever increasing, a considerable portion of the domestic economy from external demand, by 2007, .Foreign economic development pretty well, but the sub-prime crisis, the gradual weakening of external demand, which concerns the formation of A-share investors, the main reason for performance of listed companies. .</ P> <P align=center> major event is just a "concept" </ P> <P> this year, is probably the most disappointed investors, "the Olympic market," the disappointed. .The opening day of the Olympic Games, Shanghai Composite Index fell 4.47%, beginning the prelude to the Olympics down market, and the entire Olympic Games and Paralympic Games, 30% stock decline. .Shows, the Olympics seem to have very little connection with the stock market, after the hype is just a "concept." .In the Olympic Games, as well as the Guangzhou Asian Games, Shanghai World Expo, Shenzhen Universiade, the scale of these activities can not be compared with the Olympics, according to the current situation of view, may not provide strong support for the market. .</ P> <P> analysts believe that, after this baptism of the complete cycle of Contracts, it is easy to see there is a clear context of the market, growth in the value of listed companies should also focus on the main line or extension and expansion of endogenous, major events .to some extent can be understood as a one-time gains. .Before the Olympics, which have been reflected in positive share price in the relevant section of the hype, will eventually return after a period of calm after the hustle and bustle, the stock market will eventually affect the overall economic fundamentals. .</ P> <P> present, consumption is likely to remain the major problems facing our economy. .Need to look at from the outside, with the external economic recession, external demand will be significantly decreased; and domestic demand, the current situation is not optimistic. .In this case, if it relies on investment to boost GDP growth, most likely caused by production backlog situation, and, indirectly, will decline in investment. .</ P> <P>.