Sunday, December 12, 2010
CD interest rates or the market follow the leadership of Ben Bernanke.
<P> Imminent U.S. interest-rate market are generally looking forward to the opportunity to pause, especially the United States recently released new employment figures than expected, it is speculated slowing economic outlook. .Interest will stop increase in August, is currently still variable. .</ P> <P> Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke earlier become more moderate tone on inflation, coupled with softening U.S. housing market, announced Aug. 5 off than expected jobs data weak response from the interest rate futures market that the United States .the opportunity to raise interest rates had dropped to two percent or so. .</ P> <P> the U.S., there are two distinct theories: the hawks claim that the interest rate, the U.S. core inflation remains strong, too early to stop raising interest rates, inflation may be renewed; claim does not raise interest rates .doves contend that business confidence has shown signs of slowing down, is a forward-looking data, the figures are lagging inflation data, if excessive interest rates, the economy would have a negative lag effect. .</ P> <P> 8 月份 not increase interest rates, Bernanke caught live, except as he said it would make reference to objective data, bones and more importantly, may also be that he expected the strategy to control the market. .</ P> <P> face of the current interest-rate crossroads, if Bernanke decided to raise interest rates, of course, to help maintain his hawkish image, but the risks that may trigger market turmoil, sparked discontent around .sound; If you do not raise interest rates, the benefits of course, need not worry about interest rates may drop after the stock and property markets, and also reserves the October rate hike options. .As this risk, the most obvious, of course, triggering runaway inflation concerns. .</ P> <P> Bernanke's appointment, he boasted more than the predecessor, Alan Greenspan attention to data and transparency, however, the subtleties of the interest rate cut in interest rates, often the "Fifth Wave" of the critical moment .how to decide, not so much depend on all the objective data, it would be better by virtue of the capture of market psychology, which I believe is the most important test for Mr Bernanke. .</ P> <P> 8 stop monthly interest is added, the market is the focus of the next few days, but if a longer time to observe the place, the impact of this decision seems to be limited, because the general idea according to the market, the future U.S. interest rates will only .raised once again, if the August decision to raise interest rates, the next step there may be a temporary halt, if not increase interest rates in August, a strong future if the data does not rule out again when the next interest-rate hike, which analyzes .the market should start to gradually digested in U.S. interest rates before the end of a message will only increase. .</ P> <P> market fund large amount of investment of billions, their deployment does not just look at the interest rate movements a day or two, but as soon as possible to see the trend for some time, more conservative .view, when interest rates hovering at the current level, the market gradually adapt, it is believed the U.S. economy can still maintain momentum, if there is such an environment, conducive to stock market investment or bias, the problem is the world's stock markets are promoted to high level, big is not easy .and then fried on a sharp upsurge. .</ P> <P> from past experience, the major market news, as long as expected, the market will advance to digest, most notably the 90s of last century the Middle East war, when oil prices hit the market worried about the stock market, stock market results .a setback after the war that is playing, on the high recoil. .If the pause before the end of the trend is, whether large interest-rate front by the opportunity this week, re-applied the opposite theory, resorted to speculation on interest rates, stop adding fried off the trick, first make a short of money, .I am afraid that the opportunity can not be excluded. .</ P>.
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