U.s. commodity imports are greatly reduced global recession precursor

International oil prices since last month, the all-time highest fell 22% since, despite the dollar rebound is believed to be in this crash played a very important role, but there is growing evidence that, at present the market of "black" and not just the financial market volatility in common, but played a "barometer" of the financial market, is on the deterioration of global economic fundamentals.

7 month low crude oil import innovation

(http://finance.) As China and the United States is the world's largest two industrial capital goods consumer countries, therefore its consumption has often been used to assess the condition of the commodity consumption, China Customs and the United States Customs data are to be released today shows that these two countries are marked atrophy of industrial production.

According to Chinese customs data, China July 1379 million tons of crude oil imports, representing a decrease of 7% last month, for the seven months to an all-time low, but also for the month of January 2005, the maximum monthly since. Similarly, the United States energy information agency (EIA) had previously said that the United States in the first half of 2008 compared with the average of oil demand fell by 80 million barrels per day.

The International Energy Agency in the previous release of medium-term oil market report stated that, although the price of crude oil rose sharply in the first half of this year, but the risk of the global economic slowdown is bound to this process.

In addition, China's other major industrial raw materials consumption since the beginning of this year will not be able to appear seasonal growth of consumption is the month of July has reached a new low. According to Chinese customs data, 1 to 7 months, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper quantity decrease of 12.1 percent year-over alumina, imports accumulated 9.5%. Similarly, the United States Department of Commerce announced this week, the United States June cathode copper import previous month decline 23.5%, compared to the same period last year decline 14.1%.

Economic recession into controversy

In fact, despite large amounts of data in support of the United States economic impact of the subprime mortgage crisis began to decline, and the impact on the economic situation in the euro area, but also still have a number of economic indicators can prove that the economic recovery is possible, therefore, has the global economic recession has become the most recent period of time the most important economic sector.

But the study said, regardless of the issue of what is truly the answer, the negative for the market economy is expected to have become a reality, and for the financial markets, the expected effect of the real situation than the economy may be more important.

In addition, for speculative capital outflow is frequently accused of commodity prices because of the situation, the community considers that the economic fundamentals of good and bad was reflected in the financial market, mainly through capital flows, "speculative capital inflows and outflows precisely reflects the investors on economic fundamentals, therefore speculative capital outflow, this is not a problem, speculators on the economy is the negative judgment."