United States economy this year's first three quarter annualised growth 3.8 per cent respectively, 3.3 and 4.3 per cent in the fourth quarter growth rate is estimated at 3% to 4%. Authority forecast, United States economic growth this year will be significantly lower than last year, compared with the year next year will be slowed down, but still strong.
Since this year, the United States economy on oil prices, higher interest rates and the hurricanes, the pressure to achieve higher growth rates, flexibility and impact resistance characteristics of strong ability. This year the oil prices started to rise from the beginning of the year, and constantly refresh history. Many people worry that the economic growth process because of the high oil price shocks and major changes in economic structures change, labour productivity, the Fed Tixi, and oil prices influence the consumption of goods subject to import cheaper, making the United States, such as offset economic on high oil prices increase absorptive capacity.
Higher interest rates and the impact Hurricane is the United States economic growth this year, the other two factors. The Fed this year continue to continuous tixi, the federal funds rate has now increased to 4%, long-term interest rates have been increased, the role of tixi on economy started to become apparent. By the end of August, "Hurricane Katrina" Gulf Coast, United States September unemployment rose 0.2 percentage. But the latest statistical data confirm that the Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan · that hurricane impact is temporary.
Prospects for 2006, there are still some uncertain factors likely to affect the United States economic growth prospects.
First, interest rate trends. Currently, future interest rates upward pressure is still evident. The Fed's recent statement that now tixi monetary policy still has an irritant, which indicates that the interest rate has not yet reached the Fed finds that economic growth is neither produces nor produce stimulating effect of inhibitory effect of the level of "neutral." At the same time, this year's overall price level upward trend, the inflation pressure increases, economists and investors generally forecast rate will further increase. Economic cooperation and development (OECD) also believe that the Fed should continue tixi to curb price momentum. What is the interest rate level of neutral? in this level of interest rates, once the oil prices continue to rise or other on economy may have a significant impact, then the interest rate trends and the economic impact of the problem becomes more complex.
Second, the oil price trend. The current oil price and compared to the peak of this year has come down in about 20 per cent, but still higher than the same period last year, about one third. Global demand growth, surplus production capacity is limited, and refining capacity gamble soaring oil prices this year are the main cause of these problems in a short time, so the unsolved, oil prices in the foreseeable future period will remain high volatility. The OECD predicts that by the end of 2007, oil prices are expected to be from the fourth quarter of this year, approximately 58 USD per barrel down to around us $ 51 per barrel. The World Bank has predicted that the average price of crude oil in the next year to $ 60 per barrel in 2007 will fall to $ 52 per barrel. Analysts also believe that the current oil market of supply and demand is still in a "fragile balance" status, any sign of trouble can cause oil prices soaring. While high oil prices on the United States economic injury forces has not, as in the past so powerful, but slower economic growth and rising oil prices, no doubt.
The third is the housing market. Low interest rates to stimulate the housing market, the United States in recent years has been in hot state. As the fed continuously tixi, mortgage interest rates gradually rise, the housing market is beginning to show signs of cooling. Market cooling means that demand, prices, ROI, housing owners own assets value decline and repayment pressure increases, the construction and related industries, as well as personal consumption will be affected. Therefore, the housing market in the United States economic growth next year and support the role of fear of difficulty compared with the past few years.
In addition, there are some longer-term risk factors will have an impact on economic development in the United States, such as the current account deficit and a fiscal deficit. Nevertheless, the United States economy next year's growth prospects are relatively optimistic. This year, two-thirds of GDP for personal consumption expenditure, as well as enterprise fixed asset investment growth rate compared with the same period last year is not a big difference; the number of new jobs for the month of November has been restored to the levels before the hurricane, the unemployment rate remained at 5 per cent; financial market performance remained relatively stable; prices have increased pressure, inflation expectations continue to get better control. If you use the words of Alan Greenspan is: United States economic fundamentals are solid, still maintains a large forward momentum.
As for the United States economic growth next year, the International Monetary Fund forecast 3.3%, lower than this year's 3.5%; OECD forecast 3.5 per cent, slightly lower than this year's 3.6%; Bush Administration forecast 3.4 per cent, close to 3.5% this year. And last year 4.2 percent compared to the United States economy this year and next year's growth has slowed, but relative to the United States economy of scale, the next 3.3 to 3.5 per cent growth rate continues to be very good.
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