Saturday, January 8, 2011

U.S. stocks are back to August lows?.

<P>: Http://finance. Information, investor panic obvious, but the degree of panic is difficult to grasp. .U.S. stocks slumped more than last week, August lows have been in close proximity, should now ask: is pessimism in the market has reached its limit, the stock market bulls are now able to buy the dips? .</ P> <P> nervousness in the market from investors tend to hoard gold and U.S. Treasury actions are reactions in the stock market rose early October, when high, this will undoubtedly expose too upset. .Several financial companies have disclosed last week, tens of billions of dollars, further exacerbating the market's worries, fears that the credit and housing crisis in the mortgage market will spread out, making the situation even more difficult to get. .</ P> <P> Let us recall that the stock market's recent performance. .Five years after the U.S. stock market suffered the biggest decline in the past three days. .Last week the Dow Jones index closed down 552 points total to 13,043 points, down 4.1%, followed by possible re-test the August 16 low of 12,845 points. .Analysts said the Dow can hold 12,845 points is the key to success. .Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Transportation Average index has been below the August lows. .Standard & Poor's 500 index closed down 56 points to 1454 points, down 3.7% this month is down by 6.2%. .</ P> <P> investors in technology stocks recently popular hedging varieties failed to play a protective role. .The tech-dominated Nasdaq composite index tumbled 182 points last week to 2628 points, or 6.5%, the highest since September 2001 its biggest weekly point drop. .This is 10 weeks, the Nasdaq composite index fell the third time since. .Last week the Russell 2000 index fell 25 points to 772 points, or 3.2%. .</ P> <P> If the trend of media headlines as the only criterion judged, then the situation really is good and bad. .See the news media last week: There are more top bank executives who were unable to turn around and retreat, GM (General Motors, GM) announced a quarterly loss 39 billion U.S. dollars, China's foreign exchange reserves in U.S. dollar dominance shaken .there are more bond rating was lowered, the oil price approaching USD 100 a barrel price, consumers pay levels drop, the endless stream of toxic toys, and so on. .It is said that, even fashionable supermodel • Gisele Bundchen (Gisele Bundchen) are beginning to talk about signing bonuses, with the euro, the dollar seems really hopeless. .</ P> <P> However, shortly after the stock market fell, got wind of bargain hunting on. .More than one company that the Nasdaq composite index fell usually within a week or a month after the rebound. .Morgan Stanley (Morgan Stanley), also said the stock market entered recession in the past, often based on the average rate of 14.2% in severe decline, but then there will be an average rate of 20.6% in the rebound. .Strategist Smith (William Smith), also said the stock market fell 14% in the case of shares actually sad, but missed the rebound with 21% more pain. .</ P> <P> the current credit and options markets has intensified anxiety, but for bargain-hunting investors who want to enter the market is not enough. .30-day period of volatility index (volatility index) rose 78% in the past month to 28.50, but still 30.8 and this year the level of the summer break. .United International Securities Exchange (International Securities Exchange) data show that call and put options is currently less than 1.2 to 1 ratio, lower than the recent 1.43 to 1, but lower than the lowest in August when the popular 0.51 to 1 there is still a .distance. .</ P> <P> In addition, from a technical perspective, investors are not buying auction time to mature. .New York Stock Exchange (New York Stock Exchange) and NASDAQ new lows average 10 stocks continue to climb, break 404 on Thursday, but still lower than August's 702, indicating that the stock market decline continues, .Bear Power has not been fully released. .</ P> <P> Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 7.1% over the past 31 days, very heavy losses, but the current round of bull market pullback compared to the previous seven, but this decrease is much faster, but also much more moderate. .The average decline in the previous seven callback is 56 days decreased by 8.4%. .In addition, the callback and the interval between the last time the callback is only 55 days, is not less than 5% decline in prices in the callback once the shortest interval. .Analysts at Bespoke Investment Group that this indicates that the stock market from August lows, and there is no real worry for investors, and they sell the stock speed is still fast. .</ P> <P> the stock market in such a short period of time has continued to decline at least 5%, this situation happened a few times in 1999. .But the last time in March 2000, after it goes without saying. .</ P> <P> financial shares rebounded on Thursday and Friday, investors expect (and perhaps wishful thinking) Washington will intervene in the case of the market short covering. .U.S. Federal Reserve Board (Federal Reserve) Chairman Ben Bernanke (Ben Bernanke) in congressional testimony last week to discuss the risks to economic growth far more than inflation, which makes economists have raised further by the United States .interest rate expectations. .</ P> <P> In addition, the market also flooded with about crash protection team (Plunge Protection Team) could save the city of rumors. .Many people speculated that if investors continue to hang back from Washington and Wall Street giant, the fire brigade formed a helping hand may help banks deal with the book on CDOs. .By the expected impact, on Thursday afternoon, tracking financial stocks exchange-traded index fund Financial Select SPDR Fund within a few hours to rebound from $ 29.29 to $ 30.37 on volume of 119 million shares. .</ P> <P> take into account the prices of financial stocks is generally underestimated, the central bank position and tend to loose, and the yield curve is steepening, I hope more and more investors Jiancang dips. .The broader market rebounded slightly, they swarm. .However, the risk of the game is still great. .Steady investors may be less safe not impatient, and other off-balance sheet losses and consumer credit losses do become clear after the decision. .</ P> <P> perhaps to date, renewed focus on profitable growth is the right way. .Goldman Sachs Group (Goldman Sachs) strategist Kostin (David Kostin) said that the valuation of financial stocks is indeed tempting, but the judge is based on the valuation of the expected earnings and book value, which is itself based on questionable. .</ P>.

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