The Federal Reserve raising interest of continuous 17 times, advocate lowering interest has replaced the interest rate as Wall Street. Wednesday, the Fed will once again convene a regular meeting, on the current level of interest rates. Despite the current Wall Street that the economy is increasingly cold, need to cut interest rates boost, but they were very clear that the Fed this mostly continue to mark time, interest rates remained at 5.25%.
Since 30 June 2004, under the Greenspan fed breath even plus interest at the rate of 17 times, each time 0.25% interest rates from 1% to the current 5.25%. While previously tended to become hot in the United States economy and thus the success of the "heat", so that the current Wall Street worries about inflation like few have disappeared. In August this year, the Fed has decided to suspend the tightening of monetary policy, interest rate and the pace was stopped.
The Fed's attitude is clearly at odds with the Wall Street Journal, "everything is possible" is still the mainstream of the Fed's current sound. Judging from the recent Fed official's speech can be seen, the Fed officials do not think about economic trends the next conclusion is still hope that through further observation, and then decide whether to take action. The Fed's meeting minutes of August showed that decision-makers think that pause the interest rate will be "making monetary policy Committee on whether it is necessary to further tighten monetary policy judgment before accumulating more information".
Two Federal Reserve officials said Monday in United States, the economy has been showing a marked slowing trend, the inflation also seems to be out of control, the interest rate or not necessary to wait for the latest economic information.
While the possibility of interest rate cuts in the Fed officials hint in the negative. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis branch · William Poole in the accept United States television said, the current economic recession in the United States has no momentum, even if there is 1 ~ 2 quarters of economic growth to slow down, could change the overall strength of the United States economy.
And two officials of implied, Wall Street is also expected that the fed at regular meeting on Wednesday will continue to wait and see attitude and interest rates remain unchanged. Wall Street thinks that by the end of this year, the Fed changes the possibility of interest rate policy is not large, the possibility of the interest rate is only 12%.
If the Fed is not in the interest rate and the interest which chose the latter, the Wall Street Journal's opinion is not rocking to cut interest rates and interest rate cuts, just keep interest rates unchanged and reached a consensus on the part of the above. Prior to Dow Jones on Wall Street 20 level dealers in the survey, although only BNP Paribas is expected to be lowered interest rates before the end of this year, but there are nine dealers are expected in the first half of 2007 to begin before the end of the interest rate cut. There are five dealer is expected, at least by the end of next year there will be a possible interest rate cuts. But while holding Lehman may continue the Fed interest rate point of view. Lehman Brothers expected Fed rate hike this week, three suspended, but in the month of October, and January the interest rate, thereby enabling 5.75% interest rate.
Merrill Lynch yesterday also report that, at present, China's economic cycles are increasingly close to the United States and the United States a slowdown in economic growth on China's economic growth has caused some impact, but it will also help China's economy, especially to China's trade surplus of continuous innovation high creating a certain effect. But some analysts point out that if the United States, early interest rate will be reduced by $ RMB and spreads, the influx of hot money will increase, further increasing the appreciation of the Renminbi pressure.
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