The Fed injected 200 billion surge in the Dow crashed 400 points.

<P> The 11th Federal Reserve announced a joint Europe, Canada and several central banks to the financial system, injection of billions of dollars, New York, crashed three major stock indexes rose. .The Dow Jones industrial average soared 416.66. .</ P> <P> day, the Dow back on the thousand mark, the S & P five hundred, and the Nasdaq composite index also ushered in the biggest gain in nearly five years to the day. .The former rose 47.28 to close at 1320.65; which closed at 2255.76, or almost four per cent. .Dow and S & P index rose five hundred in 3.5% or more. .</ P> <P> several major central banks injected joint news of Wall Street's highly encouraging. .Benefit from the financial sector swept past the largest decline, an increase of 4.8 percent. .The largest U.S. housing finance agencies Fannie Mae and another residential mortgage lender Freddie Mac shares were up eleven percent and twelve percent. .Citigroup, the largest U.S. bank shares also rose 9.1 percent rare. .</ P> <P> It http://finance. Inquiry, the Federal Reserve's decision is the most active market as the recent bailout measures. .And analysts generally believe that the Fed will be held this month on the 18th meeting of rational policy of cutting interest rates again. .</ P> <P> "If the Fed can not create additional pressure on the dollar exchange rate situation, stabilize the credit markets, then they won." Analyst Ted? Obo House said. .Fed rate cut decision is bound to make the U.S. dollar against major currencies parity continue to decline, prompting dollar-denominated crude oil and other commodity prices soaring, which may increase the risk of inflation. .</ P> <P> It is reported that the Fed United Kingdom, Canada, Switzerland, the European Central Bank, to lend primary dealers up to two hundred billion U.S. dollars of government bonds, loan period for twenty eight days, both the relaxation of the transaction .Business conditions for direct financing from banks, but also expand the Federal Reserve and other central banks in foreign exchange swap plan. .</ P> <P> with Wall Street investors that the Fed's moves have a major impact on the market, but the market short term can not get rid of the shadow of the credit crisis. ."Only when the turn for the better in the credit problems, be possible to stabilize the market." Analyst Mike? Dalda said. .</ P>.

New York, a young house slave of the tragic history of loan repayment.

<P> While the U.S. real estate market is highly variable, and even the recent subprime crisis has evolved into a financial crisis, but housing prices in Manhattan have not thus cooling. .</ P> <P> in the heart of the heart of the U.S. economy, a little better the lot, a living room without the average price of a studio apartment as much as $ 450,000, but less than the dramatic reduction of housing prices .to March 2008, only 13% of the house was still under the staggering price. .</ P> <P> hard in New York, most of them young, in order to settle down with one of the, who did her best to save money. .China is now a popular word: house slaves, the word used in the group of young adults in New York, is also very appropriate. .</ P> <P> single girls: eating free food, clothing and home-made clothing </ P> <P> It http://finance. News, 31 year old single girl, Amy, now as art director in a company, .main target customers is a cosmetics company with annual revenue of about 8.5 million. .When she found a married friend had bought the apartment, prepared by a sense of loss. .She also expected to own a space, not just for themselves, and also for those who put her favorite doll collection. .Amy then began to collect all kinds of houses keep the information, but "every time I print out this information after the could not help but cry. I think, for a single girl, the purchase is a remote .unattainable dream. "</ P> <P> as Amy spend $ 1,550 a month rent, saving even more difficult for her, but in 2004, she insisted month .deposit $ 400, to 2005, she already has nearly 1 million in deposits. .After a capacity to pay for their own apartment for a long visit, she found in Brooklyn price of $ 160,000 a small apartment. .When she called on parents came to see the house, she found turned out to be the father here, where a child growing up, which she delighted. .But she and the house of monumental missed because of inadequate initial hash. .</ P> <P> stimulated Amy began to "abuse their" like to save money: Every time I go groceries stores are in strict accordance with pre-column list of good shopping, do not buy luxury items like expensive fruit juice; if eating out .Her first choice is Mexican food, Mexican restaurant because of free and cheap French fries and vegetable; work in the fashion industry had to purchase new clothes to Amy, they patronize only the most expensive brand, then she simply buy discount fabric .materials, their tailors the. .</ P> <P> 2006 年 10 months, Amy found a price of $ 220,000 a simple apartment, although she has been suffering for over a year to save money, but this house down payment of 10% or take her .do not come out. .But this time, Amy did not give up, she was a heartless advance from his credit card a lot of money, make up the gap. ."I can not let this money into my stumbling block between a home." </ P> <P>.

$ 110: a weaker dollar as the main driving force pushing up oil prices.

<P> The weak dollar led traders ignored the increase in U.S. crude stocks and other news, 12, New York crude oil prices crossing $ 110 a barrel intraday. .</ P> <P> On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude for April delivery rose $ 1.17 futures price per barrel to close at $ 109.92, the highest intraday red to $ 110.20, again to refresh .Both intraday and closing records. .London's International Petroleum Exchange in April Brent crude futures rose $ 1.02 a barrel to settle at $ 106.27. .</ P> <P> weaker dollar is still the main driving force pushing up oil prices. .On the New York foreign exchange market the euro against the dollar break through a barrier than 1.55, to close at a ratio of 1.5526. .Crude oil futures in the international market in dollars, one dollar will increase the crude oil futures for holders of other strong currency attractive to investors, on the other hand will drive some investors to hold dollar assets, instead buying oil futures .to compensate for the losses caused by depreciation of the dollar. .</ P> <P> It http://finance. Hearing, U.S. Department of Energy's oil inventory report released the same day only under the pressure of short-term effect of oil prices. .The report shows that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased last week, 620 million barrels, far exceeding market expectations of 160 million barrels for the eighth time increased over the past 9 weeks. .</ P> <P> oil futures, Nymex April gasoline futures delivery rose 0.25 cents a gallon to settle at $ 2.7286. .April heating oil futures price for delivery rose 2.87 cents a gallon to settle at $ 3.0244. .April natural gas futures prices for delivery per 1,000 cubic feet (1 cubic meter or about 35 cubic feet) rose 1.1 cents to settle at $ 10.011. .</ P>.

To face the reality: US official predicts recession for the first time

United States Department of energy information agency's latest a forecast reports that, in the first half of 2008, the United States economy will shrink. This is the United States Government pointed out that the recession of the first official forecast report.

According to the United States http://finance. Department of energy information agency recently in monthly energy forecast report said: "the first half of this year, the United States by real GDP will fall slightly, and then started to rebound in 2008, the overall growth rate of 1.3 per cent, is the lowest growth rate since 2001. ”

United States Department of energy Intelligence Bureau economists Nasir · Gil Gil said, the Agency estimates that annualised, the first quarter of this year, the economy will shrink 0.5 per cent, the second quarter will shrink 0.7 per cent.

The report does not mention the word "recession", but most economists believe that two consecutive quarters of economic contraction is recession.

Gil Gil said: "the real estate downturn is more widely spread to the entire economy. "He also said that, if not the dollar makes the foreign demand for more powerful United States products, the economic situation even worse.

Intelligence Agency forecasts annualised, United States real gross domestic product (GDP) will be from the fourth quarter of 2007 11.577 trillion shrinkage-2008 first quarter 11.563 trillion in the second quarter and further reduced to 11.542 trillion and Q3 will increase to $ 11.633 trillion.

The fed into turning point in how much the market interest rates as critical

This week, even though there are many economic data will be published, many financial institutions performance will debut, but the most important issue is the Fed will cut interest rates, the number of base points. Bloomberg's Economist survey shows the Fed will cut interest rates 0.5 to 2.50% last Friday bear in the event of a liquidity crisis, the market interest rate cuts expected to 0.75%, some analysts even expected to be 1%.

It was pointed out that this http://finance. the Fed's interest rate policy may become a turning point in many markets, crude oil market can tell people that the Fed's decision is important. Over the past few weeks energy prices soar, but many market participants expressed this trend and basic surface and no relationship, and the financial market turbulence and dollar decline is currently the most important factor. Precious metal market. US dollar exchange rate and financial market stability becomes each big market-linked bonds, the Fed's interest rate policy is especially eye-catching.

From interest rate futures market information is 88 basis points, i.e. a 48% chance cuts 0.75%, 52% chance of 1% interest rate reduction. Interest rate futures market prices reflect the market balance, interest rate options market is more "personalized", the chances of interest rate cuts 0.5% 19.5% interest rate reduction 1.25% chance also 10.8%.

Current fed face two problems: economic growth and inflation. According to the Fed's statement last August 7 days before the Fed has been stressed that inflation risks; to 18 September, the main risks to economic growth; in the ensuing two declarations, the relationship between the two tend to balance; while the 30 January this year, once again become major economic risk.

Just like the United States Brookings senior fellow Douglas W. Elmendorf, although modern monetary policymakers have many rules, but the Bank does not respond to the financial crisis "manual". Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke likes to go ahead in the market, namely the market and to counter market crisis. Therefore, as long as he thinks necessary, interest rates are not the problem.

Another example can also prove that Ben Bernanke at to the Ordinance. Ben Bernanke has indicated that "the Central Bank and other regulators to protect against possible for specific financial instruments or financial institutions to develop specific rules of seduction", but due to the deterioration of the credit markets, the Fed said last week, for mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market price up to 2000 billion rescue package.

The real question is whether the interest rate cuts useful?:

Interest rate cuts, of course, you can increase the fluidity of the market, but now is not the lack of money. Subprime lending market crisis is a liquidity crisis, borrowers were unable to repay, and the Fed rate cut and cannot directly reduce housing loan interest rates. Over the past few months market performance attests to this.

While the credit market crisis is a crisis of confidence. Solvency crisis financial institutions a loss which is not fully exposed, leading to mistrust between financial institutions, are no longer mutually financing, credit crisis arise. The Fed's rate cut on this powerless. At this point, the US Federal Reserve launched many make the market more opaque rescue policy (such as last week's MBS for national debt policy), the leading financial institutions risk exposure, the more difficult and may cause market worse. But in the end, excessive interest rate cuts will let investors worry about prices soaring.

Interest rate cuts 0.75% may allow more calm, market operation market will continue to follow the past track running, the dollar will face pressure on interest rates of 1% would cause some market shock, but does not change the market orientation; cuts 0.5% or less, you will be on the market is very large, and even fundamental effects.

In addition, this week also concern development focused on the United States President George w. Bush has given the deterioration in the credit market crisis and economic recession odds, has decided on Monday and its financial markets working group meetings to seek solutions. The Organization's members include the United States Treasury Secretary Paulson and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, and SEC and commodity futures trading Commission Chairman. Experts point out that, because the situation is urgent, the White House may be announced after the new economy and relieve tension in the market.

Secondly, Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley and three other major financial firms, will be held on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday announced first quarter performance, and thus can assess United States subprime mortgage crisis and credit crunch crisis is on Wall Street have caused further damage. Last week, Bear Stearns was the serious deterioration of the liquidity position, the trend of the US Federal Reserve for help, the market worried that there are other manufacturers also face the same crisis, some even directly to a Lehman Brothers will be the second victim. Experts point out that the financial industry's latest results announcement for the helped market assessment United States financial services industry has been caught in a systemic crisis.

In addition, Bear Stearns on Friday after the fed and Morgan Bank emergency, whether their financial situation has stabilised or rescue units there are further action, the focus of concern.

Detailed description of the Fed's rescue tactics

Into 2008, as the subprime mortgage crisis continues to worsen, turbulent financial markets in the United States, the fed and the Bush administration continues to intensify efforts to rescue, to avoid the situation completely out of control. According to http://finance., 16 day and night, the Fed once again decisive final, a is for financial institutions to create new financing tool and immediately lowered the discount rate from 3.5 to 3.25%. With the US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, the Fed this two urgent decisions aimed at financial institutions provide more financing channels.

The Fed's emergency measures introduced in the middle of a rare, on the one hand, visible on the current United States the seriousness of the financial crisis, on the other hand is visible the Fed's rescue.

United States is now the most immediate and urgent problem is how to restore the financial market stability, and orderly running. After the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis, comprehensive, suffered financial system has become a trend, but credit led to a serious lack of market liquidity. Credit to the economy, like blood to life. If individuals and enterprises is difficult to obtain credit, consumption and investment will inevitably be subdued, and threaten the whole economies of normal operation.

In view of this, the fed and the United States Government is from the currency and the financial perspectives, the race to launch rescue measures to promote the orderly operation of the market. Specific to the Federal Reserve, on the one hand, through various means injection of capital to financial markets, increase market liquidity; on the other hand, through a sustained substantial interest rate cuts, the stability of the market to avoid recession. The Bush Administration launched up to 1680 billion stimulus package, through tax rebates to promote consumption and investment.

But based on the subprime mortgage crisis also worsening, rescue measures effect existed hysteresis of current financial markets in the United States will continue to be turbulent. United States investment bank on Friday Bear Stearns liquidity problem "significantly worse" raises significant decline in the market. With the United States economic recession features increasingly apparent, the financial market has become highly sensitive to disturbance may cause market overreaction and exacerbate the economic difficulties of the United States.

If you said in the beginning of the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis, the fed and the Bush administration have underestimated the gravity of the crisis, and missed a good opportunity to respond to crises; then, from the present a series of emergency bailout, the fed and the Bush Administration has been fully aware of the severity of the current issue, go to avoid the situation is getting out of control.

14 December, the fed, United States Department of the Treasury and the United States SEC respectively issued a statement stressing that they are paying close attention to the development of the situation in the financial markets. The Fed 16 day publishing two rescue measures, White House spokesman Perry j. emphasized that the United States Treasury Secretary Paulson and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is actively take steps to meet current challenges. It can be expected, if the situation continues to deteriorate, the fed and the Bush Administration's rescue efforts will intensify, progress will be accelerated. With the United States rescue measures effect gradually appearing in the second half of the United States is expected to be out of the current difficult situation.

The Fed despair desperate throw "desperate measures" the Chinese do

Reading this article: the first page: the sharp decrease in the discount rate by 25 basis points the Fed "desperate times" throwing "desperate measures" on the second page: "all of the market is entering a vicious circle," the third page: United States crisis tests China decision page four: Fed's rescue also need to improve the transparency of the fifth page: rescue operations in the besieged little USD

The sharp decrease in the discount rate by 25 basis points the Fed "desperate times" throwing "desperate measures"

In almost 30 years since the first weekend of emergency meeting, the Fed has lowered the discount rate offering.　　But this does not mitigate the fears of investors, rather than stimulate market on the subprime mortgage crisis to further deepen the panic.　　Meanwhile, 18, United States Federal open market Committee (FOMC) meeting, held in yixi had analysis institutions guessing the intensity may increase the interest rate, interest rate cut of 75 points or even 100 points. "The United States to implement such emergency measures more confirmed the United States current financial deterioration than previously estimated.　　"Morgan Stanley greater China Chief Economist Wang said in an interview. "Despair desperate measures required at all times. The Fed is taking measures to regain its stability, but if this means that in the United States of Saturday night's interest rate, that's okay. "Sydney Commesec Chief securities Economist Craig · James said.

The "garbage" endorsement difficult to harness people's hearts

According to http://finance., local time, 16 March, the Federal Reserve in the Asian markets opened suddenly announced the discount rate from 3.5% to 3.25%, to increase market liquidity. The news published a dozen hours ago, JP Morgan and fed announce joint emergency financing for Bear Stearns, to save the bankers.　　Also, the Fed also ratified yesterday Morgan to approximately US $ 2 per share price of the acquisition of Bear Stearns. In accordance with Bear Stearns announced in January of this year's annual report the number of shares, this transaction on bear's valuation only 2.36 billion.　　If you learn to bear Stearns in Manhattan on Madison Avenue's global headquarters building is more than 10 billion dollars, bear's "sale" more reveals United States cruel liquidity crisis. A United States Fund Manager said the Bear Stearns crisis has begun in earlier. "As early as last Thursday we will get the message out of Bear Stearns, quickly take measures. Very fortunately, I had just put on Thursday all the money from Bear Stearns, on Friday and it broke. "Bear's customers are international large investment banks and hedge funds, it was supposed to be the industry more secure institutional broker (prime brokerage), it can provide hedge fund provides a comprehensive account of the various investment tools in one account, so attractive that it absorbed by client funds may be as high as $ on Siu. But the problem is that not long ago the rumors bear market will appear financial difficulties or even bankruptcy, many customers start massive withdrawals, many people fear that once the clearance, may own funds to be frozen for a long time.　　This results in the company there financial difficulties, at the same time, the company's stock price plummeted as well. "Less than half a year ago, the bear's stock price or even up to more than $ 150, or even a week ago was more than $ 70.　　Morgan large generic 2 US $/unit nominal prices to buy Bear Stearns, which reflects what? how can not panic on the market? "asked the Fund Manager.　　But the Fed lowered the discount rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%, only more interbank borrowing the reference benchmark federal funds rate target by 25 basis points, why the market would remain indifferent? our hedge fund managers Sonny on reporter said that the problem lies not in the interest rate cut, nor is the fed and Morgan's rescue measures unpopular, but the Fed not long ago to allow financial institutions to "junk" bonds as collateral assets to Central Bank financing, has triggered a serious investors. He said that the market is not agree with the Federal Reserve, which is the equivalent of the junk bond placed and the United States Government bond equal status. "The Federal Reserve yourself a degraded, then who would buy a United States national debt?" Sonny, "the Fed's practices revealed a worrying situation, the United States financial institutions in the United States national debt to the Bank's mortgage financing, this stage may have no collateral assets to the Bank for financing, this is perhaps the more recent market volatility of the underlying cause. ”

Market expectations: rate cut of 75 ~ 100 basis points

For the Fed this action, the market does not appreciate it, they look close watched today convened by the Federal Reserve open market Committee meeting, whether or not to take interest rate cut means will be decided at this meeting.　　United States Ministry on March 14, published in February, the core CPI data display than the CPI ring zero growth, shows the United States in the economic downturn, inflationary pressures.　　CICC economists Shen Jian Guang in yesterday's release of the report of analysis that, in the economic risk of facing down, the Federal Reserve to pay more attention to core inflation rather than overall inflation, as long as core inflation is relatively stable, MEDLINE Chuwei guarantee economic growth will continue to cut interest rates.　　But before that, the Fed has announced a new round of a regular securities lending arrangements (TSLF) rescue plan, to level dealers provide up to $ 200 billion of Treasury bonds. Shen Jian optical analysis said that the plan is essentially to State bonds, the Fed is best of collateral and Bank Exchange poor collateral to facilitate inter-bank market liquidity, however this scheme to 27 March started, has now been caught in a liquidity crisis, liquidity significantly shrunk by financial institutions seem a bit late in coming. But in the long term, the underlying causes of the credit crunch or price decreases, it is difficult to improve business and buyer financing difficult situation.　　Given the current economic entities in weak States, interest rates remains the Fed currently can ease the United States economic growth stagnated problems inevitable choice. "From the market price performance, 100%

The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates of probability is equal to or more than 75 basis points, there are approximately 50% chance the Fed could cut interest rates of 100 basis points, the effectiveness of the policy remains to be seen.　　"Wang to reporters.　　The Fed's aforementioned conduct indicates that the Fed will do everything possible to save credit market, but if the effect is still affected by the market, investors instead of on the credit crisis deepens even more concern. CMC Markets in New York, Chief Forex strategist ashina Cardiff · Leite is directly show the pessimism.　　He thinks the dollar had a near-crisis point, but with decreased and the acceleration of the speed, the currency is the edge of the slide to runaway, if the Fed lowered interest rates, the Fed rate cut this week will have a very high against the dollar. Leticia's view, a leading international bank soon may intensify oral intervention intensity, expressed in the foreign exchange market volatility concerns, but also possible covert intervention which commercial banks in accordance with the other central banks of MEDLINE Chuhuo commands massive dollars. Central Bank intervention possibilities between combined, as in the smaller fundamental disadvantage, the dollar may be reasonable.

Benchmark interest rate to 2.25% in the stock market rallied in Europe and America.

<P> Order to prevent the U.S. economy into a severe recession, the Fed decided to 18, significantly lowered the benchmark interest rate by 0.75 percentage points to 2.25%. .</ P> <P> LONDON, March 18 Xinhua by the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates sharply news, the London stock market rebounded strongly 18, "Financial Times" 100 average stock price index to close at 5605.8 points, up 191.4 points ., an increase of 3.54%. .</ P> <P> It http://finance. Hearing, in addition to expectations about Fed rate cuts, the London stock market the same day by Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers quarterly financial reports such as better-than-expected positive encouragement. ."Financial Times" 100 stock index opened higher after a strong all the way to higher and higher, Zhong Pan to the day time high close. .Analysts here believe that the market recovery of 5600 mark a significant point integer, to avoid being punctured before the London stock market to go completely bear low risks. .</ P> <P> suffered heavy losses in the previous session's strong rebound in bank shares is the vanguard of the day. .All UK banks all rose, the rise in the market contributed a total of 59 index points. .United Leicester Bank jumped 8.4%; Standard Chartered Bank rose 7.5%; HSBC Holdings also rose 7.2%. .Mises British software company announced merger and acquisition due to soaring 13.8%, sit tight or table top spot. .</ P> <P> day, the other major stock markets in Europe also ushered in a long absence, a strong rally. .Paris CAC40 stock index closed 4,582.59 points, compared with the previous trading day up 151.55 points, or 3.42%. .Frankfurt DAX stock market index closed 6,393.39 points, up 211.09 points than the previous day, or 3.41%. .</ P>.

Think of Japan: see Bear Stearns arranged marriage.

<P> U.S. Federal Reserve Board (Fed) is reminiscent of the behavior of the nineties of last century in Japan. .</ P> <P> Fed may not want to hear that, but it is indeed some recent moves reminiscent of the Japanese financial crisis when people see some of the practices. .</ P> <P> one of the initiatives that led to an arranged marriage, the Bear Stearns (Bear Stearns) to promote the JP Morgan Chase (JP Morgan Chase) in the arms, to prevent the detonation of the Wall Street brokerage firm. .People can not help but think of the Bank of Japan used for decades "mutual security system", that is, strong institutions and government to promote mergers and weak institutions to support. .</ P> <P>, of course, Fed has no choice but to let it come to the edge of a cliff at Bear Stearns, in the end to pull back. .Fed to JP Morgan Chase has also provided 300 billion dollars in financial support. .</ P> <P> but on the balance sheet of Bear Stearns, the potential losses may be more than 30 billion U.S. dollars. .Although the shareholders of JP Morgan on Monday cheered, but in the long term, this transaction may bring them pain. .</ P> <P> It http://finance. News, New York, an independent financial services research firm Graham Fisher & Co.'s Managing director Joshua • Ross Canal (Joshua Rosner) said: "We do not have enough .courage to tell the truth, that the reason leading to market instability. "Rose Canal last spring, warned that banks should take full account of its mortgage losses. .But he said the bank, is still not done so. ."This is just the mix of assets, not the way to face reality." </ P> <P> and Japan in the 20th century case of 90 mortgage bonds and related assets of the real delay in the clearing price may be difficult to determine that enveloped the market .lingering uncertainty. .Banks will be more concerned about the potential risks against, rather than lend the money to maintain economic growth. .</ P> <P> Fed agreed to accept a potential non-performing assets as collateral rate cut and other measures to promote liquidity also prompted the dollar's depreciation. .Last week, the U.S. dollar since 1995, fell below 100 yen for the first time; since last June, the dollar fell against the yen exchange rate has nearly 22%. .</ P> <P> 20 century, the late 90s, the Japanese central bank will lower interest rates have been reduced to near zero, so the yen fell sharply. .Therefore, the yen carry trade has become a tool, that is, borrowing low yielding currencies, the currency higher investment income. .</ P> <P> take into account other parts of the United States and Europe, the spread between the huge, analysts have predicted that the dollar will become yet another tool for the carry trade. .Fed on Tuesday will almost certainly determine the goal of reducing the federal funds rate, ranging in between 0.5 to 1 percentage point, making the din of speech is even the dust. .(Editor: latest news, Fed on Tuesday has announced it will cut its key rate by 75 basis points.) </ P> <P> is not to say that Fed should stop cutting interest rates. .Avoid long-term recession is painful, may also be a Bernanke (Ben Bernake) the primary focus. .From Japan's Great Depression, Bernanke learned one thing: do not want to prompt the central bank, lowered interest rates will only make things worse. .</ P> <P> But if interest rates enough to stimulate consumer debt to increase spending, and let the paranoia of the banks are willing to lend, then the United States is likely to experience Japan has another nightmare: that economists .The so-called liquidity trap, in this case, then monetary policy will not help stimulate economic growth. .</ P>.

Fire sale of Bear Stearns shareholders fate.

<P> Bear Stearns (Bear Stearns Cos.) Ready to commit themselves to JP Morgan Chase (JP Morgan Chase & Co.) Plan its good as a blow to investors. .Stunned, the shareholders want to disrupt the deal, but now, because there is no other power buyers appeared, in addition to their fate probably have no choice. .</ P> <P> It http://finance. Hearing, Bear Stearns stock price on Monday blew out, a drop of 84%, but the $ 4.81 closing price was still much higher than the JP Morgan bid. .Many speculators took the opportunity to buy the stock, they expect to JP Morgan Chase will ultimately raise your bid to avoid acquisition plan died. .One trader said that if you are a shareholder of Bear Stearns, why does not manufacture point of confusion, see JP Morgan Chase will raise your bid, or braving the risk of insolvency of Bear Stearns gamble? .He said: They (Bear Stearns) is simply the next rush. .Why should the shareholders bear the losses? .</ P> <P> one of the largest shareholder of Bear Stearns Joseph • Lewis (Joseph Lewis) said they did not accept the JP Morgan bid. .9.4% of shares held by Bear Stearns, said Lewis, whose bid does not reflect the true value of Bear Stearns. .He said through a spokesman, as a bid "is simply laughing at us, I do not believe that shareholders will agree." .</ P> <P> another deeply dissatisfied shareholders are Bruce • Sherman (Bruce Sherman). .He is the Legg Mason Inc.'s Asset management company Private Capital Management's chief executive. .According to informed sources, Sherman on Monday to the Bear Stearns have expressed dissatisfaction with the sale transaction. .It is understood that the idea of the sources said Sherman, JP Morgan Chase Bear Stearns over the weekend on a positive comment on the financial outlook, which is equal to recognize the value of Bear Stearns it out to more than USD 236 million purchase price. .</ P> <P> together hold about 30% of the shares of Bear Stearns employees, many of whom threatened to veto the sale plan. .</ P> <P> But analysts say the one hand, bring together government regulators strongly Bear Stearns and JP Morgan Chase, at the same time, now there is no other powerful families of Italy to buy Bear Stearns. .In this case, to reach a better deal seems unlikely. .</ P> <P> Bear Stearns shareholders may Bear Stearns transaction for the sale proceedings, it seems inevitable. .JP Morgan plans $ 6,000,000,000 earmarked reserves to meet these potential risks and other related costs. .And even if shareholders gain the upper hand in the legal proceedings, in order to get the money out of these years might have. .</ P> <P> JP Morgan Chase committed to trading obligations of Bear Stearns are all one-year warranty. .Even if Bear Stearns shareholders to vote against the deal, this commitment will not be canceled. .If Bear Stearns to remain independent, it still may face a new liquidity crisis, and make themselves reduced to the point of bankruptcy. .In that case, the shareholders of any interest in it would be hard be guaranteed. .Under normal circumstances, if they go into liquidation phase, shareholders came bottom of the list for compensation. .</ P> <P> It is now a shareholder vote at least six weeks. .Where will the market recover, then Bear Stearns shareholders may claim as an independent company able to survive, and then refused to own "fire sale" to JP Morgan. .However, almost no one believed this began last June, so that the whole crisis in the beleaguered credit markets will soon be over. .</ P> <P> currently the major shareholder of Bear Stearns, including some well-known mutual funds and fund companies, which is not difficult to see that many of Bear Stearns investors actually understate the credit crisis in the face .risk; hand, many of them are still a few months ago the company added in this and other brokerage firms in the investment, they bet the worst of the credit crisis is already over, with a low price could not be more investment in low-wealth .attractive financial agencies. .</ P> <P> current major shareholder of Bear Stearns, including the famous Jim • Barrow (Jim Barrow) in charge of the Vanguard Windsor II Fund, the Bill • Miller (Bill Miller) management of Legg Mason Value Trust, and .Fidelity Investments (Fidelity Investments), MFS Investment Management and Putnam Investments subsidiary of a few funds. .Whether it is 450 billion in assets in Vanguard, or 133 billion dollars in assets of Legg Mason, or whether other funds have refused to disclose their positions situation. .</ P> <P> star manager in those depressed people, most well-known, was undoubtedly the most surprising Barrow. .Morningstar (Morningstar Inc.) Released the latest report, Barrow in to see the market value of Bear Stearns fell below book value, after the time of the Company to be reborn from the crisis, so in last year's strong stock holdings .. .As of the end of 2007, Vanguard has held 800 million shares of Bear Stearns shares, which accounted for 7% of the outstanding shares, in April last year, the fund invested only 92 million shares of Bear Stearns stock. .</ P> <P> as of last Friday in the month, the value of the fund has shrunk by 6.7%, while taking into account dividends reinvested in the case of the S & P index over the same period a decrease of 4.3%. .</ P> <P> English name JPMorgan Chase: JPMorgan Chase & Co. Headquarters location: Listing: NYSE: JPM </ P> <P> English name of Bear Stearns: Bear Stearns .Cos. Headquarters location: Listing: NYSE: BSC </ P> <P> Related reading: </ P> <P> Global search: Who is the next Bear Stearns </ P>.

Obama is not timely to clarify the controversial poll race fall.

<P> U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama on race issues to dodge a few days later, choose to directly face 18, first published in a speech on racial issues, trying to break away from his former pastor Wright controversy arising. .The latest Gallup poll released 18 shows, this does not save the public opinion down the momentum of Obama, Obama's rival Hillary Clinton has been leading the second consecutive day, and gradually widened the gap. .</ P> <P> not timely to clarify the controversial poll race down </ P> <P> Gallup analysis of recent polls Obama down, to be published with the controversial Wright speech, Obama did not clarify the time .. .Obama was 18, against the United States addressed issues of race, urged the U.S. not to escape racial discrimination does exist and not equity. .We should be open, to face challenges, solve problems, to the U.S. as the perfect union. .Obama's remarks can not save declining poll, 19 we can see some results. .</ P> <P> Central News Agency reported that polls show Clinton leading Obama 47% currently to 44%. .Leading to increase the gap by one percentage point more than 17. .If the Democrats win the nomination by Obama, McCain leading Obama 46% will be 44%. .If the duel between Clinton and McCain, then they will be 46% of the draw. .</ P> <P> more about the national election poll was conducted from 13 to 17 were interviewed 4,388 registered voters, sampling error plus or minus two percentage points. .For the Democratic primary poll was conducted from 15 to 17 were interviewed 1,237 Democratic Party and the pro-Democratic voters, sampling error plus or minus three percentage points. .</ P> <P> </ P> <P> to save the election ton output capacity </ P> <P> </ P> <P> recent Wright sermons, to boldly speak out "911" since the terrorist attacks on the United States .looking for; Hillary does not know black people as human beings are not feeling so amazing speech. .Wright's speech last week by the You Tube widespread, the Clinton camp, wait, declined comment. .Public opinion is very negative reaction. .Obama low-key response to the first, and intends to cut and Wright, hoping to defuse the crisis time, no material has also led to the black community's dissatisfaction, and white society is that he was half-hearted. .Obama is not a person into both sides. .</ P> <P> decline for two consecutive days in the polls, but Hillary and McCain have been exceeded, Obama only to find that can not dodge, decided to cut the Gordian knot, will we open play from the election has been to avoid collision .touch the sensitive issues of race, spread out for the clearly speak directly see. .</ P> <P> Obama reiterated his 18th of Reverend Wright's inflammatory remarks about race relations in the condemnation, but he also said he would not abandon the Reverend Wright, as he would not abandon their family members. .Although Obama's speech a bold and risky, but it is a speech he had to do. .</ P> <P> race relations in the speech, Obama denounced Reverend Wright called America the unique "white supremacy" of the racist point of view is distorted, and he also explained these ideas .origin, that is, the history of racial inequality in the U.S.. .</ P> <P> But Obama said he could not abandon the Reverend Wright either, can not abandon his fellow black community or his white relatives. .Barack Obama in a speech without any publicity banners and slogans, he would like to focus emphasized the presidential campaign has gone beyond the issue of race. .But he admitted that the issue of race in the election campaign has become a divisive force. .</ P> <P> Obama said: "I believe race is the United States now can not be ignored. If we simplify the problem of race, induction of, the negative impact of the expansion that it distorts reality, and if .In that case, we made the same mistake and Reverend Wright. "</ P> <P> Obama's speech was published at a critical moment an important speech, because the U.S. presidential candidates are often accused of evading .difficult issues, and this problem will be Barack Obama in the White House has an important effect. .</ P> <P> Obama and Hillary Clinton the next competition is April 22 primary in Pennsylvania. .The new poll shows Hillary Clinton to overcome Barack Obama continued to lead the party places on the situation, she is currently 12 points ahead in Pennsylvania. .</ P> <P> </ P> <P> 66-year-old Wright is Obama attended the church's former pastor in Chicago. .He is not only twenty years ago to guide the field of Christian initiation into Obama spiritual mentor, Obama is also a couple of witnesses, but also for Barack Obama hosted two daughters baptized. .</ P>.

Cohen was demoted chief halo faded bull on Wall Street.

<P> Nineties the Internet bubble known as the Wall Street "bull commander," said Cohen, chief strategist at Goldman Sachs (Abby Joseph Cohen) in the subprime mortgage crisis and credit crisis, the aura faded, by Goldman Sachs .Group of stocks removed her title of chief forecaster. .</ P> <P> aged six years old, still remain in the high ex Goldman Sachs, the investment strategy of the Group's most senior members of the team is now responsible for more extensive reform of global issues, as the Goldman Sachs Global Markets Institute .(Global Markets Institute), president and senior strategist. .Research done by the Institute covers a wide range, including demographic changes, labor development, pension scheme, health insurance funds, capital market structure, regulation and environment, and provide consultancy services to foreign governments. .</ P> <P> It http://finance. News, the Wall Street Goldman Sachs investment strategist new to aged-year-old Kostin (David Kostin). .He hired four years ago by Cohen into Goldman Sachs. .</ P> <P> Kostin current forecasts, standard and poor short term would fall to 1160 points. .The index closed at 1,276.6 points on Monday, compared with last October's record highs of 18%. .If the standard and poor really fell 1160 points, the decline from its high point widening to 25.9%, which is the official representative of U.S. stocks bear market is coming, more than the previous high waves down at least 20% of the traditional short definition. .However, Kostin also predicted that the number of S & P five hundred before the end of this year will rebound to 1380 points. .</ P> <P> Cohen forecast published in December last year, the index this year will stand on the 1675 points, but on Monday said she agreed with Kostin's forecast. .</ P> <P> Cohen rarely bearish stocks along the way, her half of the 1990s U.S. stock market continued to see more well known. .Time in her high-spirited, and her words will be able to drive U.S. stocks higher. .But the market investors over the years on Cohen's forecast disappointed the market trend in control, her views on the U.S. stock market seems to be overly optimistic. .</ P> <P> Cohen earlier this year forecast the trend of the S & P five hundred optimism index, second only to Rupert Bear Stearns analyst high (Jonathan Golub), HSBC Holdings analyst Gal Diener (Kevin Gardiner) and .UBS analyst Bi encore (David Bianco) of the 1700 point estimates. .</ P> <P> Related: investment bank is still heavily in the stock market favorite won the emerging Asian markets </ P>.

Continued weakness in U.S. job market was the economic stagnation.

<P> United States last week for the first time jobless claims surge, reaching the highest level of two and a half, which shows that employment in the first two months following a continuous decline, the March job market remains weak trend continued. .Meanwhile, the February leading index fell 0.3% decline for the fifth consecutive month, indicating the U.S. economy may fall into stagnation. .</ P> <P> It http://finance. Hearing, weakening employment response to economic conditions than poor, that may affect consumer spending, the economy worse. .The forecast the next three to six months of continuous decline in the leading index, but also shows that the U.S. economic outlook bleak. .</ P> <P> Central News Agency reported, the Labor Department said Thursday new applications for unemployment benefits last week, an increase over the previous week, 2.2 million, 37.8 million people, not only higher than experts expected 36 million people, is near .the highest in two months. .In addition, the March 8 until the number of people continuing to receive unemployment insurance payments for the 286.5 million people, but also for the end of August 2004 Hurricane Charley hit Florida by the impact of a new high. .</ P> <P> Labor Department employment report showed previously announced, in February to reduce the work of 63,000, the worst in five years, is also the second consecutive month, less work. .Work published in January reduced the original 17,000, under the revised order to reduce the 22,000. .</ P> <P> released the same day, another data also deepened worries the U.S. is heading towards recession. .Private research institutions - the U.S. economy Council announced in February leading index of economic show in February leading index of economic decline following a 0.4% in January, went down 0.3%. .Although this indicator is expected to meet the experts, it is forecast the next three to six months of the financial situation of the indicators for the first five months of decline. .</ P> <P> Economic Council noted that the index since last August has fallen 1.5% since, while the component index of the ten indicators, only two growth. .February greatest negative impact on the index, including the number of initial claims for unemployment insurance, purchasing performance, building permits, consumer confidence. .</ P> <P> labor economist at the U.S. economy council Goldstein pointed out that "economic activity tends to be slow to stop, can not rule out a small part of the tightening economic phenomenon." </ P> <P> but ., Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia manufacturing index -17.4 in March, although the first four months of consecutive decline, but the index is still higher than originally forecast -18.3. .U.S. Atlantic coast manufacturing economy if the market is worried about not so bad, making the day U.S. stocks recovered some of yesterday's loss of blood, Dow Jones industrial average, S & P and Nasdaq rose three major indices simultaneously. .</ P>.

Treasuries sold off the U.S. government was adding insult to injury.

<P> U.S. Treasury yields fall, leading to many pension fund managers to sell treasury bills, switching to other investment products. .This is a huge deficit facing the pressure of the Bush administration, the equivalent of adding insult to injury. .</ P> <P> bond yields fell </ P> <P> It http://finance. Hearing, 30-year yield has fallen to 4.22% from 19, close to record lows. .This forced the pension funds is more favored stocks, corporate bonds and commodities such investment products, in order to compensate for poor financial condition and used to pay pensions. .Philadelphia pension management Mackay, chief investment adviser Chris Alexander Downer said: "The reality is that we do not have much to do, besides buying high-risk securities to fill the pension gap in the short term." Even .U.S. federal government's own pension fund pension benefits U.S. security company on February 19 this year, also said it planned to invest the 150 billion shift from debt stock. .1100 U.S. fixed income investments of the Fund increased from 27% in 2003 to 23% in 2006. .Financial market research firm Greenwich Associates consultant Clifford that a greater proportion of the decline in 2007. .</ P> <P> holdings of foreign stocks </ P> <P> the Bush administration forecast a fiscal year budget deficit will be 410 billion U.S. dollars, close to a record 413 billion U.S. dollars in 2004. .The world's largest bond fund manager Pacific Investment Management Company, Bill Gross believes that this figure could eventually reach 8,000 billion U.S. dollars. .UBS Securities believes that the budget shortfall will force the U.S. Treasury 163 billion U.S. dollars on the basis of the borrower to increase the scale of 145%. .30-year bond is the favorite of pension funds, because they enable managers to get the best match of the assets and liabilities. .It is predicted that the pension fund holds about 440 billion 20 years or longer-term bonds. ."In the long run, I do not know whether these bonds will have much value." Oversees 8.5 billion pension fund of the Los Angeles water department pension fund's chief investment officer, said Jeremy Wolfson, the fund will adjust the bond holders .a rate of 35% from the previous reduced to 25%, and increase non-US assets are held, such as international equity holders of the next 4 years the proportion increased from 15% to 24%. .In addition, many pension funds to employ foreign managers, they are used to compare alternative investments with funds under management, which means that the amount of investment in treasury bills will come down. .</ P> <P> bond yield spread that out of favor </ P> <P> Los Angeles, the largest U.S. pension fund pension plans on February 19 this year to agree on the board of directors decided to 0.5% to 3% of its assets .for investing in commodities. .According to the Pew Research Center report in December last year, the U.S. government should send the pension and insurance funds in the next 30 years is estimated to reach 2.73 trillion U.S. dollars, and they are difficult to pay almost $ 731,000,000,000. .Watson Wyatt head of asset allocation Off Make Lu believes that such studies may overstate the pension gap, so that only allow them to buy shares out of treasury bills. .Declines in bond yields more attractive to other fixed income investments, Blackstone Group, the management company in New York account manager, said Barbara Novak, the company manages 513 billion U.S. dollars of fixed income assets. .Merrill Lynch index shows that investment grade corporate bond yields higher than Treasury bills average 2.47 percentage points a year ago only 0.89 percentage points higher. ."The yield spread has expanded to such a large extent, the transfer is now time to invest in other things," Novak said. .</ P>.

The global "financial flu pandemic," the world dragged down the U.S. Crisis.

<P> "It is time to stop the depreciation of the dollar." For the United States to use against the dollar, etc. Let the world from the financial crisis in the United States pay the bill, the British "Times" 17 days of such complaints. .Although the stock market in 18 countries in the world join forces to rescue the market and the Federal Reserve Bank will continue to be stabilized under the expected interest rate cut, but the Federal Reserve and central banks one after another extraordinary "fire" action, kept it for this financial crisis is sweeping the whole .concerned about the world, the United States to stabilize its economy and let the dollar continue to "free fall", leaving national concern and dissatisfaction. .Geneva International Institute economist Ross VIP in the British "Financial Times" said the author criticized the U.S. for the U.S. dollar continuing to decline, but Americans do not care about the performance was reminiscent of the last century the world had the U.S. Treasury Secretary Connally .that famous phrase: "the dollar is our currency, your problem." .</ P> <P> the world suffer from "financial flu pandemic?" .</ P> <P> 18, Agence France-Presse reported concerns about the global economic insecurity is leading to deterioration of the world's financial markets, with the fifth-largest U.S. investment bank Bear Stearns crisis and the Fed continues to cut interest rates this week .expected, this deterioration is being spread to more areas. ."The New York Times" reported that 18, 17, the world's financial markets experienced "the most volatile day." .From London, Paris to Frankfurt, the European main stock index fell 4%. .In Asia, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell 5.2%, Japan's Nikkei index fell 3.7%. .Even the economy is the rapid development of China and India are two developing countries, the stock market plummeted Monday. .</ P> <P> 18, reported Reuters, the Fed will be held 18 local monetary policy meeting, the outside world predicted the Fed might cut rates 100 basis points again. .In this expectation, 18, Asian stock markets have stabilized. .However, the international community is increasingly concerned about the crisis. .According to Reuters, many economists believe the Fed may cut interest rates faster falling dollar will only increase the world's "sense of crisis." .</ P> <P> It http://finance. News, International Monetary Fund (IMF), president of Kahn, 17, warned that the deteriorating global financial market crisis, but also increasing the risk of spread of the crisis. .Kahn said, IMF may reduce in the next few weeks, including the U.S., global economic growth forecasts. .On the same day, the organization's director for Western Hemisphere Affairs, Singh also warned that the global credit crisis could turn into a global "financial flu pandemic." .</ P> <P> U.S. crisis dragged the world </ P> <P> for this from the scope of the crisis in the United States, the German "Bild" 18, said before the "U.S. economy sneezes, the world economy must be cold ."Now I am afraid that the U.S. economy had" serious infectious pneumonia. " .With the subprime mortgage crisis spread to other areas, the United States will usher in recession, the global economy is not immune. .</ P> <P> by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, Korean financial markets into a panic state. .South Korean presidential office held an emergency high-level meeting from 18 to discuss financial issues. .South Korean media said President Lee Myung-bak to bed each day, look at the recent CNN, to understand the latest developments in the U.S. economy. .Lee also said the day before, the Korean economy faced a "Since the 70s of last century's greatest crisis." .South Korea, "Chosun Ilbo," 18, said the Korean economy has been the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis and the resulting high oil prices and other unfavorable factors surrounding that will make South Korea's economic growth target of 6% to naught .. .</ P> <P> Reuters reported that China's two sessions of concern under the sun curtain 18. .How to outside the United States subprime mortgage crisis, there are under the dual pressure of inflation and maintain stable and rapid development of China's economy will undoubtedly become the new government faces the biggest challenge. .Reported that Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao told a press conference, with the recent U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, caused by depreciation of the dollar, a few cuts, high oil prices, has reached 110 dollars per barrel, which is also the world's stock markets .a great impact. .He said the world economy, especially the United States is very concerned about the economy, and deeply worried. .</ P> <P>.

Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers downgraded the global financial industry have been shrinking fear.

Following the Bear Stearns <P> two dollars per share after the fire sale to JP Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers, Standard & Poor's turn the rating outlook as negative. ."Economist" predicted that these former Wall Street stock prices will fall over half of the gold. .Next few years, the global financial industry will face stagnation or even contraction fate. .</ P> <P> "China Times" reported that the emergency rescue of Bear Stearns last week, the Fed, and the first investment bank to finance brokers, financial situation to stabilize. .However, before the time for the Easter holiday, the S & P was adjusted Lehman Brothers, Goldman Sachs rating outlook is negative, because the investment bank earnings are expected to shrink this year, three percent. .</ P> <P> & P said in a statement, the Fed last week, slowing the relief of financial market liquidity problems. .Nevertheless, capital market turmoil and the appearance of the rapid deterioration of the economy, are making the financial Goes affected. .</ P> <P> It http://finance. News, Lehman Brothers and Goldman Sachs for the independent investment banks this year, net income will decline at least two percent. .Goldman Sachs is currently rated AA-, Lehman was A +. .Largest U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs, the fourth-largest investment bank Lehman, the second largest investment bank Morgan Stanley's earnings report released last week, even though profits were down four Daowu Cheng, but still in line with analyst earnings forecasts. .</ P> <P> latest "The Economist" pointed out that the financial turmoil, the investment bank's risk are particularly vulnerable. .Because investment banks do not take deposits, totally dependent on short-term borrowing from the market. .If the increased liquidity risk, Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley and Lehman the most vulnerable. .</ P> <P> concern the market is holding up mortgage backed securities of Lehman Brothers, but if cash flow relative to capital as the index, Lehman's situation better than the rest of the industry. .Instead, cash is relatively low by Goldman Sachs. .</ P> <P> busy last week, investment banks show their purse full of cash to eliminate the investor's concerns. .Lehman said he's holding company 640 billion in assets, you can always take the cash collateral. .Morgan Stanley adjusted its strategy to reduce the proportion of short-term loans overnight, hands on more cash than last year, four into five. .Goldman Sachs also reduced the proportion of short-day loan, for a total, long-term loans on Wall Street has grown since 2004, doubling to 8,000 billion U.S. dollars. .</ P> <P> but obviously credit rating and investment banking are not good. ."The Economist" that the U.S. financial sector is now for the lack of fundamental support since 2000 to pay a financial bubble. .More than six years of the bubble, due to regulatory gaps, one year short-term financial assets due to capital do not need to mention. .The hands of these investment banks led to financial assets held, once put out the loss, many put the capital eat. .</ P> <P> for financial stocks end down in the end when "The Economist" quoted an analysis that I am afraid the first quarter of the banking industry needs to put out five million of bad debt losses. .If the liquidation value to calculate the financial stocks may have dropped by another five percent. .</ P>.