Subprime-induced global financial major reshuffle, the two indicators the U.S. economy.

<P> 2 月 25 news: U.S. subprime mortgage crisis in late 2007 and early 2008, deteriorating, "butterfly effect" triggered a global stock market crash, naturally also affected China A share market, global market capitalization loss of more than 10 trillion. .So, the subprime crisis of U.S. strategic intent? .To how China's capital market will lead to change in the situation? .</ P> <P> two major indicators of the U.S. economy </ P> <P> It http://finance. Hearing, according to U.S. Treasury data showed: 2007 budget deficit was 162.8 billion U.S. dollars, compared with 2006 2482 .million decreased by 34.4%, and 413 billion U.S. dollars in 2004 compared to significant decline in fiscal deficit. .At the same time, the U.S. Congress predicted Bureau predicts, the U.S. government budget deficit in 2008, the will fall to 155 billion U.S. dollars, and plans to restore the deficit in 2012 earnings. .</ P> <P> U.S. foreign trade deficit since 1971 there has been 30 years of lingering and intensified. .2005 trade deficit of 716.7 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for GDP, 5.8%; 2006 U.S. trade deficit, which hit a new high of 763.6 billion U.S. dollars, the trade deficit with China accounted for $ 232,500,000,000; U.S. Department of Commerce announced: to 29 November 2007 announced .a revised third quarter GDP, September trade deficit improved 4 months straight, while the 7th consecutive month the export growth, import and export ratio fell to 14 .. the lowest level of 3,5 and a half years, the export per annum (13.6%) .almost 3 times the annual rate of imports (4.9%), apparently played an important role in the dollar, therefore, to reduce the "double deficit" the burden of the dollar must be devalued. .</ P> <P> Although the United States last year's third quarter GDP was 4.9%, 0.6% in the fourth quarter, the unemployment rate of 4.7% in November, December rose to 5% in January this year, U.S. non-farm employment fell by 1.7 million people, but .a survey: January 2008 U.S. private sector added 130,000 jobs. .Investment data: November 2007 $ 149,900,000,000 U.S. capital inflows, higher than the trade deficit that month the number of needs, but also higher than the "twin deficits" need dollar shortfall in capital inflows is very beneficial to maintaining U.S. economic growth. .</ P> <P> 2007 index of U.S. consumer confidence has been declining, while the subprime mortgage crisis erupted in the third quarter, consumption is still up 2.8%, in particular, in January 2008 U.S. consumer confidence index was 80.5, higher last month .75.5, also higher than market expectations of 74.5. .The two indicators that the United States investment and consumption, and not as pessimistic as the market thought. .</ P> <P> "twin deficits" is gradually improving </ P> <P> after the subprime loan crisis and the deterioration of the dollar is logical to cut interest rates substantially continuous, as fundamental to reduce the "double deficit" to create conditions. .As the United States closer to its external debt to 100% of GDP, almost all in dollars, the United States about its foreign assets GDP70%, 70% of course, the foreign currency price. .If the 10% depreciation of the dollar, then the rest of the world into the U.S. net wealth will be about U.S. GDP5%, which is basically to offset the U.S. trade deficit. .United States, with its annual growth of 13 trillion economy of scale, is the largest and most flexible global economy, the dollar decline is cyclical rather than structural, the continued expansion of the United States and the gradual improvement of the "twin deficits", the .the end of this year or early next year reversed the dollar's weakness, not allowed to decline and long-term depreciation of the dollar. .</ P> <P> investment in U.S. real estate slump and subprime crisis will end soon, as the United States Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence said: "As house prices are still falling, many potential investors on the sidelines .However, existing home sales will be expected to rebound this spring. " .</ P> <P> crisis of the dollar is now one-sided, over-reduction induced by a foreign investor dollars, perhaps the U.S. would like to see, almost equal to a Xichou opportunities. .This realization of the U.S. deficit in 2012 earnings recovery, and a significant reduction in trade deficit, stabilizing the dollar and work is in line with U.S. interests, and only completely out of the "twin deficits", the U.S. economy will enter a new .period of development in order to maintain the lifeblood of the U.S. economy --- the capital market competitiveness, this is the U.S. national strategy. .So that the United States may be the highest return in 2008 a market, followed by emerging market countries. .</ P> <P> lack of liquidity caused by the sub-prime? .</ P> <P> Western developed countries, central banks from the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, injecting liquidity. .According to the CASS Institute of Finance statistics show that: As of August 31, 2007, the United States injected $ 145,250,000,000, Europe injected $ 644,155,000,000, Japan injected $ 46,773,000,000, Australia inject $ 15,139,000,000, Canada, injected 4.368 billion U.S. dollars, the cumulative .amounted to 855.685 billion U.S. dollars. .Then the Federal Reserve since last December, has 4 times through loans from commercial banks auction injection, the first 3 times the 200 billion U.S. dollars, 4th 300 million, a total of 900 billion U.S. dollars. .There has been since last September, Europe, Japan, Australia, Canada, and continue to inject to the market is estimated at about 800 billion U.S. subprime mortgage crisis is expected because the Western developed countries central banks injected more than one trillion U.S. dollars. .To increase stimulate consumption and investment, stabilize financial markets and maintain economic vitality, the U.S. Congress through the implementation of 146 billion U.S. dollars in fiscal stimulus, monetary and fiscal policy is really two-pronged approach. .</ P> <P> the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis caused by lack of liquidity really it? .</ P> <P> as a measure of the key indicators of liquidity M2, the latest Federal Reserve monetary report: As of December 31, 2007, when the week's M2 money supply was $ 7472000000000000, an increase of 43 billion U.S. dollars, from 2006 .At the end of the sub-prime crisis beginning to the end of 2007, M2 median rose from 4.7% year on year growth to 6.2% in September 2007 was 6.7% growth rate, indicating that money creation function of the United States itself, no problem. .Consider U.S. dollar in September last year, from 5.25% to 3%, and the Central Bank of Western developed countries and the massive injection of monetary easing actions, the United States market liquidity shortage, is it nonsense. .</ P> <P> by the end of the dollar may raise interest rates </ P> <P> With the worsening U.S. subprime crisis, the dollar began a new round of rate cuts introduced January 22 to 75 basis points over 20 years of decline ., January 31 and 50 basis points lower and lower, since last September from 5.25% to 3% of the current, resulting in high yielding currencies rose, capital flows to Asia. .U.S. dollar is widely expected to cut interest rates has not ended, listed in the March 18 meeting, but also cut interest rates this summer, the U.S. federal funds rate may be reduced to 2 to 2.5 percent. .</ P> <P> dollars continue to cut interest rates, the next European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Bank of Canada, also is likely to cut interest rates gradually, showing that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut on radical, not only brought dollars .sharp depreciation of the currency will lead to non-dollar hard to follow the rate cut effect. .The over-rate cut may make the United States back to 2001, the situation of excess liquidity due to excess liquidity, low interest rate policy context, the stock market and real estate prices will inevitably rise, asset bubbles and inflation risks may be gathering again, with the .inflation pressures and market prosperity, the dollar is likely to raise interest rates in late 2008, the world's major currency exchange rates will thus increase. .</ P> <P> hot money or boost A-share market </ P> <P> RMB interest rate is currently 4.14%, 3% in U.S. dollar interest rate, interest rate spread of 114 basis points in U.S. currency interest rate upside down, the excess of international speculative capital ( .hot money), continue to pour into China, the catalyst performance in accelerating the pace of yuan appreciation. .Today, under the influence of passive RMB appreciation in the dollar, will be far worse than last year and is expected against other major currencies the U.S. dollar. .</ P> <P> large bubble covering the small foam </ P> <P> the current global financial ongoing major reshuffle, speculative excess capital (hot money) The real risk is not present, but in the end after a big bubble cover .a way to iron out small bubble subprime crisis. .U.S. interest rates and loose monetary policy, funding, increase the global excess liquidity, in emerging countries to help create another round of excess liquidity boom has brought a new round of pressure on portfolio capital inflows, the birth of a new asset bubble, and .bring other problems within the economy. .</ P> <P> the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis caused by the false economic decline, the U.S. economy might rebound in the second half began, therefore, with particular attention to U.S. dollars at a future time, a sudden appreciation of the strong dollar is a direct interpretation of the logical result of the development .countries and emerging countries, including China, who pay the price for this to become a bubble. .This is the Japanese economy has experienced 20 years ago to the event, when the outflow of capital may be as fast as the water at low tide. .United States and other developed countries to achieve their replacement with money to continue their financial prosperity and glory. .(The author is deputy director of Securities Research Institute, Department of Waring) </ P>.